Tuesday, June 10, 2025

The Big-Bad Health Insurance Company

Here is the link.

 https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamaneurology/fullarticle/2832610?guestAccessKey=4c3364cd-0aa7-42d2-8965-28ec7533b381&utm_medium=email&utm_source=postup_jn&utm_campaign=article_alert-jamaneurology&utm_content=etoc-tfl_&utm_term=060925

 Your reaction after reading this is likely to be anger at this health insurance company and even all of them.

 Questions:

·         What would health care cost if everyone received all the health care they desired?

·         What would health insurance cost in such a context?

·         Would such health care and health insurance be affordable?

·         What “rationing” would make health care and health insurance affordable?

·         Does there exist such a rationing that would not lead to care being denied in situations that were viewed as unfair, heartless, etc.?

 In other words, dear reader, there is no “solution” to this problem. 

Sunday, March 09, 2025

Three Simple Principles of Trade Policy

 Douglas Irwin provides enlightenment (from 1996: when will we learn?).

 Here is the link.

 chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/-three-simple-principles-of-trade-policy_142937157317.pdf

 

Climate change: still unsettled

 From Climate Journal.

 Climate science is unsettled and the IPCC’s focus on anthropogenic climate change may not be justified.

 Here is the link.

 https://www.mdpi.com/2225-1154/11/9/179

 Here is the abstract.

 A statistical analysis was applied to Northern Hemisphere land surface temperatures (1850–2018) to try to identify the main drivers of the observed warming since the mid-19th century. Two different temperature estimates were considered—a rural and urban blend (that matches almost exactly with most current estimates) and a rural-only estimate. The rural and urban blend indicates a long-term warming of 0.89 °C/century since 1850, while the rural-only indicates 0.55 °C/century. This contradicts a common assumption that current thermometer-based global temperature indices are relatively unaffected by urban warming biases. Three main climatic drivers were considered, following the approaches adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)’s recent 6th Assessment Report (AR6): two natural forcings (solar and volcanic) and the composite “all anthropogenic forcings combined” time series recommended by IPCC AR6. The volcanic time series was that recommended by IPCC AR6. Two alternative solar forcing datasets were contrasted. One was the Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) time series that was recommended by IPCC AR6. The other TSI time series was apparently overlooked by IPCC AR6. It was found that altering the temperature estimate and/or the choice of solar forcing dataset resulted in very different conclusions as to the primary drivers of the observed warming. Our analysis focused on the Northern Hemispheric land component of global surface temperatures since this is the most data-rich component. It reveals that important challenges remain for the broader detection and attribution problem of global warming: (1) urbanization bias remains a substantial problem for the global land temperature data; (2) it is still unclear which (if any) of the many TSI time series in the literature are accurate estimates of past TSI; (3) the scientific community is not yet in a position to confidently establish whether the warming since 1850 is mostly human-caused, mostly natural, or some combination. Suggestions for how these scientific challenges might be resolved are offered.