Friday, May 28, 2021

Guns on Campus

 Here is John Lott at townhall.com

JL is an expert on gun control, in particular the impact of various gun laws.

I highly recommend his book "More Guns Less Crime: Understanding Crime and Gun Control Laws" if you are interested in the truth about this topic.

Here is JL's column.

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For decades, gun control advocates constantly claim that Right-to-Carry laws would lead to disaster. But when disasters don’t occur they move on to the next prediction of disaster. We have to keep track of these predictions if only to judge how much weight to give to their erroneous predictions.

Montana is the latest state to let people carry concealed handguns on college campuses, and the state Board of Regents for the university system demanded an emergency stay from the state Supreme Court because “serious harm is threatened” if the law goes into effect on June 1. The Regents took a real gamble in using such apocalyptic language because the state Supreme Court didn’t grant them their stay. After the law goes into effect and there are none of their predicted problems, what happens to their case?

One wonders if left-leaning professors and college students in a state like Montana feel safe going off campus. Whether they go to a restaurant, movie theater, or grocery store, they are very likely to find themselves next to someone who is legally carrying a gun.

But seven percent of Montanans already possess concealed handgun permits, and students and faculty somehow manage to leave campus.

Gun control advocates don’t understand that criminals seek out targets where victims can’t defend themselves — that gun-free zones make targets more attractive to criminals. It is no accident that 94% of mass public shootings occur where victims are disarmed.

Montanans were supposed to be able to carry concealed handguns at college campuses starting June 1, but Montana’s Board of Regents filed a legal challenge with the state Supreme Court to the new law last Thursday.

Faculty and staff worry that students who are angry about grades might shoot professors. The academic community, they argue, will be afraid to openly discuss issues for fear of harm. So it will be difficult to hire faculty, and students will be scared away.

The new law “targets our Montana University System students, and public education itself . . . This will not only kill students, but also the future of public education in Montana,” wrote University of Montana professor Doug Coffin. “Residence halls are incredibly dense living spaces, and by their nature they are an incredibly dangerous place for the possession of firearms,” asserted Lindy Kolb, an MSU student.

Eleven other states mandate that concealed handgun permit holders must be allowed to carry on public college campuses. Twenty-three other states leave the decision up to individual colleges.

Professors in state after state have predicted that these laws will be disastrous. In 2015, Dan Hamermesh, an emeritus professor at the University of Texas, was quoted in international news stories after speculating, “a disgruntled student might bring a gun into the classroom and start shooting at me has been substantially enhanced by the concealed-carry law.” According to the University of Texas at Austin’s “Campus Carry Policy Working Group,” people thought it would “impede the University’s ability to recruit and retain students, faculty, and staff.”

But no permit holder has ever shot a faculty member. Among campuses that allow concealed carry, not one has ever experienced a violent shooting by someone who was legally carrying. There have been a few accidental discharges, but none were life-threatening.

Permit holders have been extremely law-abiding, with permits being revoked for firearms-related violations at rates of thousandths or tens-of-thousandths of one percentage point. Civilian permit holders are convicted of firearms violations at one-seventh the rate of police officers.

Texas’ public universities started allowing concealed carry in 2016, and enrollment has risen every year from the fall of 2015 to the fall of 2019 (up by a total of 6% at four-year universities) %), and SAT scores rose by 7%. You will search in vain for any stories from the last few years of faculty leaving because of campus carry policies.

In a filing with the Montana Supreme Court, the Board of Regents argue that Montana’s 1972 constitutional convention vested it with the “full power, responsibility, and authority” to manage the Montana University System. But this “full power” comes with limitations. Obviously, the Regents can’t decide to hold criminal trials without juries or execute people for speech it doesn’t like. Both the Montana and Federal constitutions protect the rights to speech and jury trials, and they also protect people’s right to self-defense.

If liberal academics really believed their claims about guns, they would have left states like Montana or Texas or any of the other right-to-carry states long ago. The most ardent gun-control advocate would never put “Gun-Free Zone” signs on their home, so let’s stop putting them elsewhere.

Ann Coulter entertains at townhall.com

 This is too funny and too sad at the same time.

As I have said many times, If you view humans as the only intelligent species on Earth, I counter with:

  • We are the first intelligent species to have evolved on Earth.
  • Probably we are the lowest possible form of intelligent intelligent species.

Here is AC's column.

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Last week, we discussed Rebekah Jones, the crazy lady who wrote a 342-page telenovela about her ex-lover, Garrett Sweeterman, then went on to fame and fortune by claiming Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis was faking his state's spectacularly low COVID numbers.

Before the media turned Jones into their next Erin Brockovich, they might have done 10 seconds of Googling to find out that Jones' past includes stalking, battery on a police officer, repeated incarcerations, an institutionalization, an ankle monitor, a restraining order and court-ordered medication. And that's long before the DeSantis administration hired her as a web designer.

These infractions are contained not only in police reports and court filings, but in her prolix manifesto about her ex-lover that she herself posted all over the internet.

Jones seems to think it's a point in her favor that during Florida State University's investigation of her obsessive behavior toward her former student, "Garrett didn't even bother bringing any evidence -- no copies of texts or calls ... I brought more than 200 pages worth."

That sounds normal.

Even after multiple demands that she stay away from Sweeterman, the still-married Jones writes:

Did you know that I would have given anything, truly anything to make things right between us?

Did it matter to you at all that I loved you?

Did it, Garrett?

If the genders were reversed, Jones' obsession with a former student would be a movie on "Lifetime: TV for Women."

Instead, she attacked DeSantis and became Forbes magazine's "Technology Person of the Year," Fortune magazine's "40-Under-40" in health care, and cable news's go-to source for dirt on the DeSantis administration.

No TV personality lavished more attention on Jones than MSNBC's Lawrence O'Donnell, featuring her on his show on Dec. 8, Dec. 9, Dec. 16 and Dec. 22, 2020. As is common at MSNBC, O'Donnell jumped on the horse and rode off into the sunset without a map, directions or a compass.

In the first of his blockbuster reports, O'Donnell used a law enforcement raid on Jones' home for one of his anti-police screeds, informing viewers that they were about to see a video of "outrageous conduct by American police officers" -- and I have this hot MILF on my show to talk about it. If she wants, I'll take her on my sailboat.

The MSNBC host scoffed at the basis for the raid, saying: "They were going after the person who sent what they considered, I suppose, some criminally dangerous text." Ho ho ho. Jones -- or at least her lawyer -- knows damn well that the charge is serious, which is why, to this day, she stoutly denies sending the text.

According to the search warrant affidavit, six months after Jones was fired by the Florida Department of Health, she hacked into the state's medical emergency notification system from her home computer, obtained the private information of thousands of people, and sent out a mass text, pleading: "it's time to speak up before another 17,000 people are dead. You know this is wrong," and so on. She signed the deranged missive as if it were an official communique from Florida Department of Health.

Comcast determined that the text came from Jones' Tallahassee home. Perhaps in addition to cuckolding him, she plans to pin the hacking felony on her husband. (Then she could run off with Garrett!)

On the day of the raid, as infinitely patient law enforcement officers banged on Jones' front door for 22 minutes, she was inside, setting up a video camera. Donations to her GoFundMe page must have been flagging.

O'Donnell introduced her video, saying: "What you're about to see is almost as bad as American policing gets."

What we see is Jones (finally) opening the door and exiting the house. An officer enters, unholsters his gun, and calls out for anyone else in the house to come downstairs. In other words, standard operating procedure for executing a search warrant.

Although no one is pointing a gun at anyone, Jones can be heard in the background screaming, "He just pointed a gun at my children!"

This is classic hysterical woman behavior.

YOU'RE HURTING ME! STOP HITTING ME!

I'm not touching you. I'm 7 feet away.

But O'Donnell and the rest of the media repeatedly played Jones' video while informing viewers that it showed something it plainly did not: officers "pointing" guns at Jones and her children.

"The only thing that could have made this worse," O'Donnell said, "is if one of those recklessly aimed guns killed someone in that house. If one of those guns aimed at Rebekah Jones' children fired."

O'Donnell on the Zapruder film: As you can see in frame 187, President Kennedy is firing at Lee Harvey Oswald from the convertible.

Jones is like the white woman captured on video in Central Park, calling 911 on a black male birdwatcher. As he calmly speaks to her from 20 yards away, she shrieks to the dispatcher, "An African American man... [is] threatening myself and my dog."

O'Donnell voiceover: The only thing that could have made this worse is if the birdwatcher had killed the woman.

My voiceover for the entire American media: As you can see, they are liars.

Thursday, May 27, 2021

Lived experiences aren’t special – don’t generalize from yours – statistics matter

 Here is Tim Hsiao at quillette.com

TH is on target.

If you understand TH's article, you will have an easy test as to when you can avoid wasting time by listening to someone who is spouting nonsense or reading something that is nonsense.

Keep in mind that TH is not saying that lived experiences are irrelevant - only that over-emphasizing them is poor statistics and poor reasoning.

The problem with lived experiences is that, in Bayesian terms, they often lead to excessively narrow and biased priors, sometimes even paranoiac ones.  That combined with the likely inability for people to combine priors with subsequent data properly leads to unjustified assessments of the reasons for events.

Finally, the oft quoted "unless you have experienced something you cannot understand it" is not backed up, in my opinion, by evidence.  My view is that the evidence suggests it is not true.  Medicine is one example - diseases are often treated just as effectively by Doctors who have never had them as Doctors who have had them.  Science does not require "living it".  Nor does good statistics.

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Some time ago I found myself in the middle of a discussion about race relations and minority experiences. When it was my chance to speak, I mentioned some statistical data that appeared to challenge the common narrative that racism is widespread and systemic. My interlocutor’s reply was that he simply did not care about the data—his own experiences as a person of color were more important and trumped any appeal to statistics. Another party to the discussion agreed, saying that people matter more than numbers.

The title of a recent article by Dawn Butler, a British MP, echoes this sentiment: “Unless you have lived experience of racism there’s no guarantee you’ll understand it.” A host of other politicians have leveraged appeals to lived experience in support of their policy goals. Elsewhere, a reporter for Time describes her lived experiences as a “source of expertise” as opposed to an “emotional bias.” Lived experiences have taken on a near-sacred status under which they cannot be questioned. Case in point: the Facebook group for the news website Vox bans “comments that invalidate the lived experiences of group members.”

But are lived experiences really that special? No. Quite simply, appeals to “lived experiences” are exercises in bad statistical reasoning.

To see why, let’s suppose that I made the argument that smoking causes cancer, and that I backed this up with a mountain of scientific data and peer-reviewed studies. Now suppose that someone responded to all of this with the following: “But my grandpa Bob smoked cigarettes all of his life and never developed cancer! So smoking doesn’t cause cancer after all!”

Would you be convinced by this reply? I hope not. Smoking is a contributory cause of cancer: those who smoke have a much higher likelihood of developing certain cancers than those who don’t because the act of smoking contributes something toward that outcome, even though that outcome doesn’t always happen. So, just because some smokers don’t develop cancer doesn’t mean that smoking plays no role in causing it.

I frequently use this example when teaching causal reasoning in my logic and critical thinking classes. The point behind the example is that personal anecdotes do not invalidate statistical generalizations, which are by nature probabilistic. Most students have no difficulty seeing this point, perhaps because the link between smoking and cancer has been made abundantly clear to them. Yet students will often turn around and commit this error later on when talking about issues that they might have a personal stake in.

For example, in response to the claim that marijuana use increases the likelihood of developing certain mental illnesses, students will sometimes cite the fact that they have personally smoked marijuana without developing mental illness. Yet these experiences are irrelevant. Even if it turns out that marijuana use isn’t a risk factor for mental illness, citing one’s personal experience with marijuana does absolutely nothing to show that. This is because we are dealing with statistical probabilities.

Another example: in response to the claim that children raised in single mother households fare worse compared to those raised in two-parent families, students will sometimes cite their own success stories being raised by a single mother. There is no doubt that these examples exist, but they do not falsify the statistical generalization that single mother households on average fare worse. Affirming this does not detract from the dignity of these students or their parents.

Lived experiences as bad statistical reasoning

In fairness to my students, it’s an easy error to make when it concerns something you’re invested in, which might explain why it’s so widespread. We see it present in the appeal to “lived experiences” as a special source of knowledge. These are the experiences of minority groups who live under oppressive power structures. They are said to hold special epistemic weight because they offer unique insight into the nature of oppression and structural injustice from the standpoint of those who are dominated.

Lived experiences are often vividly used by progressive activists as evidence of widespread injustice, accompanied with a call for action and social change. Yet basing one’s entire case for widespread injustice and sweeping social change on lived experiences is, quite simply, bad statistical reasoning. Why should one’s personal experience of (say) racism carry any special weight? Should the experience of the smoker who never developed cancer also carry special weight? What about the experience of the unvaccinated person who never got a preventable illness? Or the experience of the chronic gambler who managed to keep his life intact?

The point is not that experiences of racism are like these other experiences or to cast real experiences of racism in a negative light. The point is that one cannot prove or disprove generalizations simply based on personal experiences. This is a pretty basic rule of statistical reasoning that seems to have been lost on many people who should know better. Just because one experiences racism (as I have) does not show that racism is widespread or deeply ingrained, any more than one’s experience with a smoker who did not develop cancer shows that smoking doesn’t cause cancer.

Even if one redefines racism, sexism, and the like (as critical theory does), the point remains: lived experiences cannot be used to make (or disprove) statistical generalizations about the prevalence of social injustice, whether it be police violence, sexual harassment, or economic disparities.

Every experience is “unique” in the sense that it is from the standpoint of an individual person who is not identical to any other person. We might say then that all experiences are “lived” experiences. If one has special weight, they all do. But if they all do, then there’s nothing really special about them.

To be fair, it’s not just progressive activists who will build cases on experiences or anecdotes. When others do it, the reasoning is equally flimsy. But progressive activists are unique in that they view these experiences as sacred and unquestionable. While most recognize that experiences are useful illustrative tools, lived experiences take on the status of quasi-divine revelation for them.

Retreating to postmodern epistemology doesn’t help

Now critical theorists might object to what I’ve said on the grounds that we have ignored the proper context for considering lived experiences. That is to say, we cannot understand the “logic” behind lived experiences without understanding their role in the larger postmodern epistemic framework upon which critical theory is based. They argue that there is a difference between mere experiences and lived experiences.

But this response makes things worse, for it means that lived experiences lose their persuasive power. Here’s why: critical theory starts with a set of postmodern “axioms” from which lived experiences are supposed to derive their special weight. Only those lived experiences which are in harmony with these axioms can “count” as legitimate sources of knowledge. Now this setup might be fine if we’re reasoning from within the critical theorist’s own internal system among those who already accept it, but it is obviously circular reasoning if used as a means of persuading those outside the critical theorist’s framework to accept its claims about oppression, structural injustice, and the like. Why? Because those who don’t already accept the critical theorist’s radical postmodern framework (which is most people) will have no reason to treat lived experiences as authoritative. Yet this is exactly how many activists will use lived experiences when arguing about their pet issues.

In other words, if lived experiences only derive their weight from a specific epistemic framework, then using lived experiences as a way of proving that framework is rigging the game by assuming the very thing in question.

One might fall back to the claim that lived experiences are normatively authoritative within the postmodern framework of critical theory (and thus can no longer function to prove claims outside the framework), but then they become inept as tools for activism and social change. And progressive activists don’t want to relinquish that weapon.

So those who wish to accord special argumentative weight to lived experiences face a dilemma. Either lived experiences have special weight on their own merits, or they have special weight within the context of a larger postmodern epistemic system. If the former, then according special weight to lived experiences amounts to nothing more than fallacious statistical reasoning. If the latter, then it is circular reasoning, which is also fallacious.

Either way, things don’t look good. If we want to talk about lived experiences, then we should just talk about them as just being experiences, subject to the same rules as other experiences. There is nothing particularly special about their being “lived.”

Monday, May 24, 2021

Nir Shaviv shows why climate change is not an existential threat

 Here is a link to a talk by Nir Shaviv on climate change.  NS is a top level theoretical physicist.

NS shows why the climate change models you hear about are GIGO (garbage in - garbage out).

As a corollary, you can now use NS's insights to discriminate between credible and not-credible people.  You can classify people as "not credible" if they rail against "climate deniers" or are highly confident that climate change is an existential threat.  That goes for scientists and academics, too.

Why force people to be vaccinated?

Many universities are requiring COVID-19 vaccinations for returning students.  Other organizations have the same kind of requirement.

 Why should people be forced to be vaccinated against COVID-19.

Vaccinated people are not at appreciable risk from unvaccinated people.  There is little reason for them to have a say over unvaccinated people.

Unvaccinated people prefer taking the COVID-19 risk to being vaccinated.

There is a tradeoff between freedom and the cost to others of your behavior.  In this case, the tradeoff appears to favor freedom not to be vaccinated.

Collapse of the fake consensus on Covid-19 origins

 Judith Curry gets it right again.

This kind of problem applies to lots of scientific issues.  The "game" is played by too many dishonest players.

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The concerning saga of the creation, enforcement and collapse of a ‘consensus’ on Covid-19 origins.

The Covid-19 virus first appeared in Wuhan, China, where there is a laboratory that conducts research on bat coronaviruses. However from the beginning, the possibility that this virus accidentally escaped from the lab was dismissed quite forcefully by prominent virologists.

The ‘consensus’ that Covid-19 had an entirely natural origin was established by two op-eds in early 2020 – The Lancet in February and Nature Medicine in March. The Lancet op-ed stated, “We stand together to strongly condemn conspiracy theories suggesting that Covid-19 does not have a natural origin.”

In May 2021, science reporter Nicholas Wade published a lengthy article in the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists stating that the Lancet letter had been organized and drafted by Peter Daszak, president of the EcoHealth Alliance of New York. Daszak’s organization funded coronavirus research at the Wuhan Institute of Virology. If the Covid-19 virus had escaped from research that he funded, Daszak would be potentially culpable. Daszak had corralled other scientists with similar professional interests into making a declaration to the effect that anyone who mentions the obvious possibility that the pandemic might have a connection to the research in the Wuhan Lab could only be doing so with bad intentions.

The enormous gap between the actual state of knowledge in early 2020 and the confidence displayed in the two op-eds should have been obvious to anyone in the field of virology, or for that matter anyone with critical faculties. There were scientists from adjacent fields who said as much.

However, the pronouncements in these op-eds effectively shut down inquiry. The pre-emptive declaration of scientific consensus was highly successful in garnering media enforcement of public opinion. The so-called ‘fact checkers’ of PolitiFact used these op-eds to shut down any discussion of the lab leak hypothesis. Articles in the mainstream press repeatedly stated that a consensus of experts had ruled lab escape out of the question or extremely unlikely.

Invocation of ‘conspiracy theory’ has become a reflex for arresting criticism. Analysis by Matthew Crawford shows how the political environment caused the magic words ‘conspiracy theory’ to trigger a wider epistemic immune reaction in high-prestige opinion. Crawford provides the following political frame for these events. Since Donald Trump publicly floated the idea that Covid-19 may have had its origin in a Chinese lab, it became a point of conviction for all those who believe in science that such a hypothesis could only be a conspiracy theory, probably rooted in ‘Sinophobia’. The ‘conspiracy theory’ of the lab leak hypothesis has been juxtaposed with reporting on anti-Asian hate crimes, thereby subsuming an urgent scientific question to a Trump-era morality play.

Publication of Nicholas Wade’s story on May 2 triggered a cascade of defections. Crawford describes the defections as “not simply from a consensus that no longer holds, but from a fake consensus that is no longer enforceable.” On 14 May, 18 scientists signed a letter in the journal Science with the title “Investigate the origins of COVID-19”. In an interview with the New York Times, an organizer of the letter stated, “Anybody who’s making statements with a high level of certainty about this is just outstripping what’s possible to do with the available evidence.”

Politifact has just withdrawn its Wuhan-Lab theory ‘fact check.’ [link]

What is concerning about this episode is not so much that a consensus has been overturned, but that a fake consensus was so easily enforced for year. This occurred during a key period when understanding the origins of the virus had implications for how it could best be fought. Scientists who understood that there was a great deal of uncertainty surrounding the origins of the virus did not speak up. Probity came from knowledgeable individuals that were outside of the field of virology.

Matthew Crawford states, ” Regardless of how the question of the virus’s origins is ultimately decided, we need to understand how the political drama surrounding the science played out if we are to learn anything from this pandemic and reduce the likelihood of future ones.”

Research cartels and consensus enforcement

Crawford argues that the scientists who were signatories to the two letters may have been acting as a classic research cartel.

In 2004, Henry Bauer formulated the idea of research cartels and knowledge monopolies, in context of the institutionalization of science that becomes subordinate to corporate or government values.

A key element of knowledge monopolies and research cartels is stifling of skepticism, premature canonization of preferred hypotheses and consensus enforcement, in the interests of financial or political objectives. With the help of uncritical mass media, this effectively results in near censorship of minority views. Since corporate and government scientific organizations also control the funding of research, by denying funds for unorthodox work they function as research cartels as well as knowledge monopolies.

Wade notes that in today’s universities, challenging the consensus can be very costly. Careers can be destroyed for stepping out of line. Any virologist who challenges the community’s declared view risks having his next grant application turned down by the panel of fellow virologists that advises the government grant distribution agency.

The IPCC and the ‘climate-industrial-government complex’ is a clear example of a knowledge monopoly and research cartel.

However, I don’t think that the fake consensus surrounding the Covid-19 origins reflects a research cartel. What I see is a group of scientists appealing to their own authority in protecting their personal interests. The question is why The Lancet and Nature Medicine published these op-eds. It is noted that Daszak had an obvious conflict of interest re the op-ed, but this conflict was not stated. Apparently there are no adverse consequences for not accurately stating your conflicts of interest in journal publications.

Daszak et al. presumably have some influence over which research gets funded, and this may have prevented other virologists with less influence from speaking out. However, the fact that these op-eds successfully defined a ‘consensus’ for a year has more to do with Trump derangement syndrome and the desire not to appear Sinophobic. The media is arguably the most culpable for a complete absence of vigorously investigative science journalism, prior to Wade’s article. Note that Wade’s article was published in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, and as far as I can tell has not been picked up by major media outlets.

What does all this mean for institutionalized climate science? Well the IPCC, along with supporting governments and industries, is much more entrenched as a knowledge monopoly and research cartel. But the Covid origins example illuminates the social, political and careerist motivations that are in play in attempts to prematurely canonize and enforce a scientific consensus.

In closing, a recent essay by Mike Hulme is insightful.

<begin quote>

Climategate was a controversy because it appeared that climate scientists were undermining the idea of a ‘well-ordered science’, or what Naomi Oreskes has written about as ‘the conditions necessary to reach a fair and open consensus’. We can discuss the extent to which this ‘appearance’ was real or manufactured, but my point is this: Climategate became a crisis because so much was being staked – by both ends of the political spectrum – on science providing the direction and justification for political action (or inaction). It was a crisis because of the undermining of the probity of the science upon which, it was believed or at least claimed, all sensible climate policy depended. Most notably, this included the prominent environmental commentator George Monbiot.

Climate skepticism has broader roots than this. Mistrust in science is always bound up with other things – politics, culture, ethics, the law. Skepticism often arises from observing how science and expert judgement is being mobilized in debates that are essential political – in other words, climate sceptics are suspicious about how the different interests and values of public actors concerning climate change are being resolved.

Skepticism therefore points to the problem of legitimation; it is the problem of how science – how experts – relate, or are perceived to relate, to democracy. The problem is one of when and how to “open up” public debate and when and how to “close it down”, to use Andy Stirling’s metaphor. And this requires us to recognize that how one ‘closes down’ depends on political culture: Russia, China, USA and Germany all do it very differently.



To stand in here, I use the case of climate scientist Michael Mann and his militarist vocabulary. The German theorist Carl von Clausewitz characterized war as “an act of violence intended to compel our opponent to fulfil our will.” This is not a good way to think about climate politics in a democracy. In wars there are winners and losers. Sides are taken and the solution is conquering and defeating the enemy.

As John Besley at Michigan State University asks, “Do we want people to see scientists as angry, embattled, frustrated people … or rather people who are doing [their] best to solve problems to make the world better?” The danger with the combative climate militancy espoused by Mann is that it ends up being a destructive form of advocacy.

<end quote>

Thursday, May 20, 2021

The continuing loss of freedom in favor of insanity

 Here is Karin Litzcke writing at quillette.com.  Her article is "Gender Activists Co-Opted British Columbia's Courts.  Meet the Woman Who Stood Up to Them".

I can't remember who said that freedom is not the normal state of affairs.  But this generation is proving it.  It is also proving that raw intelligence does not imply intelligent behavior.  The behavior of many Academics illustrates this.

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We have become so habituated to acts of deplatforming that many of us can no longer keep up: Though each new incident still elicits a ritual sigh of regret, we increasingly shrug it off as just another sign of these crazy times. Yet many of these episodes signify important injustices that deserve our attention. The recent deplatforming of British Columbia lawyer Shahdin Farsai falls into that category.

The back story begins on December 16th, 2020, when the B.C. Provincial Court issued an announcement advising lawyers and the public of a new practice directive stipulating that all parties appearing in court would henceforth be asked to specify what pronouns they want others to use when referring to them, as well as their preferred forms of address. (Examples provided are “Mr./Ms./Mx./Counsel Jones.”) The Chief Justice of the B.C. Supreme Court issued a similar practice directive on the same day, though without a press release.

“Using incorrect gendered language for a party or lawyer in court can cause uncomfortable tension and distract them from the proceedings that all participants should be free to concentrate on,” the Provincial Court announcement stated. “The Court hopes its new Notice will contribute to a culture that is inclusive and respectful of everyone.”

The declared intent was to accommodate “gender diverse” parties and lawyers. But the term “gender” is not used here in the traditional sense of including both men and women. Rather, the idea is to accommodate the belief that gender is a matter of self-identification, and that it exists on an infinite spectrum that supersedes scientifically observable principles of biology. In its doctrinaire formulation, this belief is sometimes described as gender ideology.

Under this policy, declaring one’s pronouns is required when people introduce themselves in court whether they present in keeping with their biological sex or not. The directives specify that anyone who does not say “my pronouns are…” “will be prompted by a court clerk” to do so; or, “for proceedings without court clerks, they may be prompted by the judge or justice to provide this information.”

The announcement did not indicate what would happen if the prompting was ignored or rebuffed. It also did not expand on the obvious expectation that the specified pronouns would be used by others in court throughout subsequent proceedings, no matter how unusual those chosen pronouns might be, nor (as discussed below) how such a policy may indirectly compromise the administration of justice.

Although this announcement was presented as compelling “inclusive” behaviour, the B.C. bar as a whole had not been asked for input. The court’s announcement indicated only one particular group of lawyers that had been involved, namely those belonging to the Sexual Orientation and Gender Identity Committee (SOGIC) section of the Canadian Bar Association, B.C. Branch—which presents itself as seeking “to address the needs and concerns of lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender and two-spirited people.” (the contested term “Two-spirit” refers to some Indigenous individuals who describe themselves as having both masculine and feminine spirits). The court even thanked the SOGIC section for its members’ “helpful feedback on this new notice.”

But the follow-up news coverage revealed that the SOGIC had done more than simply provide feedback. The committee had pushed actively for such policy changes; and provided guidance to the B.C. courts for the new rules. SOGIC co-chair Lisa Nevens personally “helped provide input to the courts for the changes,” according to the Vancouver Sun. And Canadian Lawyer magazine reported that the court “developed the policy with the help of the executive of [SOGIC].”


In fact, Nevens basically acted as the media point person for the courts’ announcement. (From what I can tell, there were no media interviews with any judges.) As seen by the general public, and even other lawyers, SOGIC effectively has become the public-relations arm of the judiciary on this issue.

And Nevens seems to have more ambitious plans, having expressed hope that the new requirements will be, as CTV News reported, “picked up by B.C.’s administrative tribunals, such as the Human Rights Tribunal” (this being the body that the trans-identified serial litigant known as Jessica Yaniv/Simpson used as an attempted means to extort money from female aestheticians who refused to handle Jessica’s scrotum and penis several years ago). Nevens also believes “the courts still have more work to do,” such as getting rid of “my Lord” and “my Lady” titles—a project that Nevens is now pursuing.

While Canadian Bar Association sections are typically focussed on building expertise within substantive areas of law, the SOGIC always has assumed a more activist stance. It was founded in 2009, four years after the fight for gay marriage was won in Canada. And so, like similar organizations, its focus has increasingly drifted toward transgenderism. The group now formally describes itself as promoting the interests of “LGBTQ2SI+”—indicating Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, Transgender, Queer or Questioning, Two-Spirit, Intersex, and (as signified by the “+” symbol) additional unspecified orientations and gender variants.

In keeping with Canadian cultural trends, members of the group also find ways to intermingle their ideas about gender with seemingly unrelated ideas about anti-racism and decolonization. Adrienne Smith, who recently addressed the SOGIC on the issue of “Trans Competent Lawyering,” for instance, argues that “before colonizers came to this part of Turtle Island [i.e., Canada] in their genocidal crusade … there had been nations [where] there was lots of ways of being in the world; not a binary gender everywhere. And then we came, and … I’m responsible for this genocidal legacy … and we cut all the boy’s hair and we put all the girls in dresses and we imposed a very binary way of being. Two-spirit people … are folks who had [a] masculine and feminine spirit in the same body and we obliterated that.”

While such ideas may seem obscure, the SOGIC has made itself extremely influential, despite having just over 200 members. A recent article published by Canadian Lawyer indicated that even some judges now belong to the group, which raises questions about judicial independence. (To my knowledge, the membership list isn’t public.)

On January 27th, the Chief Justice of the B.C. Provincial Court, Melissa Gillespie, conducted a webinar for B.C. law students in which she confirmed that the SOGIC had taken the lead in the creation of the new pronoun policy. When pushed on the implications of the directives, she suggested that concerned parties take their questions to the SOGIC itself. She also assured everyone that the initiative “was meant in only the best and most inclusive way.”

Yet the definition of “best and most inclusive” seems to be changing with the seasons. Less than two years ago, the B.C. Court of Appeal issued a new practice directive for appearing before the Court that did not require pronouns (though it did specify Mr., Ms., or Mx., as options). That directive replaced a 2014 version that didn’t specify forms of address at all.

Moreover, these developments are taking place amidst a larger shift within B.C. legal culture that substantively affects the manner in which laws are interpreted and applied. In several recent cases I am aware of, B.C. judges have allowed tenets of gender ideology—including the idea that self-declaration as a man or woman serves to erase the real ways in which one’s body affects others in intimate spaces—as unassailable fact. On more than one occasion, a judge has used male pronouns to refer to girls whose proposed sex change was itself the issue under review. Why have a judicial proceeding at all if a judge’s very language indicates that the outcome has already been decided?

Some of the lawyers acting for the parties favouring sex change for these girls were affiliated with the SOGIC in some way. Two of the province’s three chief justices, Chief Justice Christopher Hinkson of the B.C. Supreme Court and Chief Justice Robert Bauman of the B.C. Court of Appeal, were involved in hearing these cases. The new practice directives were enacted while these cases were underway in their respective courts. The fact that all of these cases (to my knowledge) were decided in favour of children transitioning against their parents’ wishes raises questions of whether courts are being co-opted by an ideological movement whose dictates now serve to trump traditional principles of law.

As many readers know, raising one’s voice against these trends can be difficult, because those who do so are tarred as transphobic. But some people, including the woman I discuss in the paragraphs below, now feel compelled to speak up as a means to protect against male encroachment on female spaces (including prisons, shelters, and sports) and to protect children from dangerous medical treatments. Often, we are described as “gender critical” in our approach. Internet trolls call us “TERFs.” But in general, we are simply voicing common sense—including in the legal sphere.

On the surface, Shahdin Farsai may seem like an unlikely target for a progressive mob. She’s a young Iranian-Canadian lawyer whose B.C.-based practice has focused on dispute resolution and estate planning. Before joining a law firm, she clerked at the B.C. Supreme Court and obtained a master’s degree in Public Policy. Her law degree came with cum laude honours. Farsai also happens to be a woman, and one who’s taken seriously all of the messaging we’ve heard in recent years about how women need to make their voices heard in historically male-dominated professions.

To Farsai, the new directives from the B.C. courts represented a form of compelled speech—and not just in a nominal sense. Reciting one’s pronouns may seem like a mere courtesy, and no doubt, many people who do so intend it as such. But it also has a political and ideological connotation, as the ritual is meant to suggest that one’s biologically rooted (and outwardly observable) identity can be altered by declaration, and that everyone must accede to that self-identification, even in contexts where the interests of others are thereby affected.

In mid-January, Farsai’s article opposing the courts’ new policy was accepted by the Advocate, which is published by the Vancouver Bar Association and funded with fees collected from lawyers through the Law Society of B.C. Farsai’s essay was not a generalized rant against trans people (as critics would later claim), but a well-informed critique of a policy that, as Farsai persuasively argued, may serve to compromise a client’s legal interests in cases involving family law or alleged sexual assault:

[Lawyers] must not be under any obligation to refer to another party by their preferred pronouns, especially if doing so would go against the legal position and the instructions that they receive from their clients. This point was made in a recent case before the B.C. Supreme Court. The court heard the case of a mother attempting to prevent her 17-year-old daughter from having surgery to remove her breasts. The daughter wanted to transition to the male gender, and provincial authorities supported her wish. The mother still regarded her daughter as a female. The question of her gender transition was the very issue before the court. Yet when the mother and her counsel referred to the daughter as “her,” the judge challenged the mother’s right to do so. According to the transcript, the judge said, “there has been a request that counsel refer to [the youth] as he or him … are you refusing to do that?” … I turn to a UK example to illustrate the point. In the UK, they have a similar pronoun practice direction. Recently, a complainant of an assault was repeatedly told by a judge to refer to her assailant using the female pronouns, when he was, in fact, a biological male. The judge is reported to have described the complainant´s pronoun infractions as “bad grace” when explaining his reasons for not awarding her financial compensation for the assault (although he could have done so). Sadly, the court compelled her to describe her evidence under oath in a way that hid reality instead of revealing the truth and to add insult to injury she was denied rightful legal compensation. My worry is that such a development could occur in B.C. given the new directive.

The editor of the Advocate also sought a rebuttal from members of the SOGIC, to publish alongside Farsai’s article. But when the Advocate’s request was received by committee co-chair Dustin Klaudt, he apparently became more interested in blocking Farsai’s piece than in rebutting it.

It emerged in due course that SOGIC members allegedly threatened the Advocate with legal action, and raised the idea that the publication’s funding could be at stake, if they published Farsai’s piece. The journal’s editor, Michael Bain, described all this in an editorial published in the Advocate’s March issue:

As a result of our effort to be fair to members of the legal profession with competing views, word of our inquiry [to SOGIC] leaked and we were rather dramatically cautioned that what the Advocate published on the matter could result in a human rights complaint against us. We have also been advised that this is not a topic that is open to debate and that criticism of the [court] directions may amount to hate speech … It [also] has been hinted that funding for the Advocate may be at risk if we publish views contrary to those of the Law Society, though we emphasize that this threat has not come from the Law Society itself.

There are many startling aspects to this, none more so than the fact that SOGIC members now apparently conceive of themselves as speaking, at least implicitly, with the moral authority of the entire provincial bar.

Among the objections Bain received to Farsai’s (then unpublished) piece was an email from the aforementioned Adrienne Smith, who is described by the SOGIC as “the leading [gender] educator in this area within B.C.’s legal community.” Smith called the article “hateful, inflammatory, and wrong at law.” Smith also suggested that publication “would expose the Advocate to liability (or at least notoriety) in a human rights complaint for hateful publications.” SOGIC founder Barbara Findlay personally telephoned Bain, “strongly encouraging” him not to publish the Farsai piece, and giving him “further case law citations to consider.”

Findlay speaks with some authority on these pressure tactics. In a 2016 seminar at the University of British Columbia, she told audience members:

Well, speaking as an organizer, the way—I mean, what I do is I file a human rights complaint. And I say, “Those regulations are deficient because … the omission of those kinds of things contravenes the Human Rights Code.” I do that without particular regard for whether ultimately I will be successful, because it’s an excellent pressure tool … And so then you’re armed with something more than your opinion. You’re armed with a legal duty. You say, “Don’t we have a legal duty to do this?” Yes, we do.

In the case of the Advocate, as it turned out, these tactics were successful: The editor was intimidated into killing Farsai’s piece.

Farsai was then able to publish a condensed version of the piece with Canadian Lawyer, a national trade publication. The article appeared on the magazine’s site on February 5, 2021. But of course, this is not where the story ends.

Prior to publishing Farsai’s article, Canadian Lawyer had published various pieces supporting trans rights, including one that ran just three days before Farsai’s piece appeared. But one of the signature talking points of SOGIC and similar groups is that this isn’t an issue on which reasonable people can differ: There is no room for debate, in their view, since any deviation from the orthodox position is simply an expression of hate dressed up as free speech. Following a co-ordinated SOGIC mob campaign, Canadian Lawyer removed Farsai’s piece about 36 hours after its publication. And a note of abject apology now sits at the URL where the article once ran.

You can still read Farsai’s article, which was republished at Canadian Gender Report, a popular advocacy site featuring gender-critical news. But that didn’t seem to concern SOGIC members—because their real purpose wasn’t to suppress Farsai entirely (which they recognize as impossible), but rather to demonstrate that they can dictate the scope of acceptable positions within their own field’s professional and media organs. The Advocate and Canadian Lawyer sit within this legal subculture. Canadian Gender Report does not.

The details of Farsai’s online mobbing are, in many ways, exactly what you would expect: There were personal insults, intellectually dishonest denigration of the article’s content, and, of course, an attempt to get at Farsai through her employer. This being a controversy connected to trans rights, there was also the predictably grotesque lie that Farsai, and anyone agreeing with her, was “literally questioning our [meaning trans people’s] right to exist.” ­Except that these weren’t random Twitter users attacking this woman. They were lawyers—people trained to argue both sides of any case, even cases involving the most abhorrent criminals.

These lawyers included Law Society of B.C. bencher Brook Greenberg. (In Canadian law societies, benchers typically establish a group’s rules and policies, and oversee any programs carried out by the society.) Dustin Klaudt, SOGIC co-chair, said the committee wanted a retraction and apology, and claimed the article’s mere existence caused “harms” to “trans and non-binary folk.” He also said that the case showed the need for (unspecified) “journalistic rules” that would serve to prevent the publication of such viewpoints.

Frances Mahon, co-chair of the national CBA SOGIC, picked up on the idea that there weren’t really two sides to this issue, but rather one legitimate side that is besieged by transphobic haters. Indeed, this lawyer declared she would not even take the trouble to “formulat[e] an intelligent response” to Farsai because it was a Saturday, and she was too busy. An hour and 20 minutes later, however, her schedule apparently freed up, and Mahon announced what she described as a “lawyers’ strike from Canadian Lawyer.”

Mahon’s manifesto eventually attracted more than 200 signatures from individuals who threatened to “decline any requests to write articles, provide quotes, or otherwise contribute to Canadian Lawyer” unless the magazine agreed to the humiliation of Farsai. (Signatories included three benchers of the Law Society of B.C.: Brook Greenberg, Jamie Maclaren, and Kevin Westell.) But what the magazine’s owners likely feared more was a loss of advertising from woke law firms.

I won’t get into all the details of the protracted flame war that played out on Twitter in the days that followed. But it was interesting to observe that while the aforementioned SOGIC members and supporters were performatively high-fiving each other for forcing Canadian Lawyer to erase an article they disliked, many of them also seemed surprised and stung by the high-volume backlash among members of the general public—including those who noted that this largely white group of privileged diversity champions was ganging up on an Iranian-Canadian woman.

In some cases, the SOGIC crowd became so flustered by the ratios on some Tweets that they attacked the idea that non-lawyers should even be permitted to offer their opinions on such subjects—an oddly snobbish view (as more than a few tweeters were happy to point out) for activists claiming to be working for “inclusivity.”

One way in which this controversy is different from other mobbings is that the target hasn’t had her life ruined—largely because her employer stood by her, and because she is not the type of person to let herself be intimidated. Even so, the SOGIC crowd succeeded in demonstrating their complete ideological control of B.C.’s legal industry, and even the national trade media—despite the fact that SOGIC’s membership comprises less than two percent of B.C.’s approximately 12,000 lawyers. As in 2020, the professional development calendar for the province’s lawyers is now full of accredited trans-focused lawyering sessions, with titles like Trans/forming the Queer Legal Landscape, and Don’t Guess, Just Ask—Pronouns in Practice.

It’s a classic collective action problem, and one that we have seen in other sectors: While many lawyers roll their eyes at this type of indoctrination, few care enough about it to raise their voices. And so the field has been left to the minority of single-issue activists who care a great deal. Even those who might have been inclined to stick their necks out can only be chastened by the treatment Farsai received. Lawyers tend to be busy people. And few will go to the trouble of asserting their principles when it’s so much easier to simply give in and recite your pronouns.

One of those few individuals is Victoria lawyer Jim Heller, who recently wrote directly to the province’s chief judges about the issue. His letter is worth quoting at some length. The court system’s new policy, he said:

is not simply a request that lawyers accommodate the wishes of transgendered people to be addressed uniquely. Rather, it demands that we all now accept the proposition that one cannot assume to know how to refer to others based solely on their “name, appearance or voice” … I and many others disagree with this assertion and in fact consider it provocative and ideological. At minimum, we believe that such a controversial directive should have been thoroughly canvassed with the bar rather than unilaterally mandated. I appreciate that the judiciary were persuaded to wade into these waters with the best of intentions. However, by acting on the counsel of one single advocacy group and not consulting with the bar as a whole, all the members of which are obviously stakeholders on the issue of how we present ourselves, the courts have unwittingly caused more confusion—indeed discomfort—than they hoped to ameliorate … If, then, the judiciary still believes that this is a pressing social concern that must be addressed, let us as a community discuss it together. Whatever embarrassment or confusion a reversal now might cause would, in my view, be nothing in comparison to the erosion of respect for the administration of justice in the long-term.

Responding to Heller, the judges proclaimed themselves to be content with their advisers and their decision. And various legal organizations have taken the hint by proactively listing their staff members’ pronouns on their websites. Whether this is being done as a good-faith bid to signal support for universal pronoun declarations, or they are seeking to ingratiate themselves with the province’s judicial establishment, or they simply want to ensure they’re not in the cross-hairs of the province’s legal cancel mobs, it’s hard to say. This is a movement that dresses itself up in rainbows and glitter. But as the treatment of Farsai shows, what it’s really about is using the levers of institutional power to force the rest of us to fake a belief in an idea that biology keeps reminding us isn’t really true.

Wednesday, May 19, 2021

Why Photo Voter IDs may be a good idea

 Here is a link to a new paper by John Lott, "Why Do Most Countries Require Photo Voter IDs?: They Have Seen Massive Vote Fraud Problems.

Here is the abstract.

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Americans keep hearing that there is no need to protect against vote fraud, that fraud is either non-existent or extremely rare. We hear that regulations, such as photo voter IDs, are unnecessary and will disenfranchise voters. Yet, the United States is not unique in having this debate. Virtually all of Europe and almost all developed countries require in-person voters to use photo IDs to vote. Indeed, out of Europe’s 47-countries, only the United Kingdom hasn’t required photo IDs to vote in their entire country, but that is about to change. Similar in-person rules exist for most developed countries. The vast majority of countries ban absentee ballots for people living in their country. While some point out that eight of Europe’s 47-countries allow for proxy voting, where you can designate someone to vote on your behalf, the safe-guards used to prevent fraud are generally far more stringent than used for absentee ballots in the US. Other countries have discovered widespread voter fraud when safeguards are not used. They also understand that relying on conviction counts is unlikely to catch the vast majority of fraud that occurs. The question is: why is the US so unique in terms of not guarding against vote fraud?

Friday, May 14, 2021

Welfare for the Rich

 John Stossel gets it right at townhall.com

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Congress passed the $2.2 trillion Heroes Act.

But it also gives lots of money to people who don't need funds.

Maryland, which even The Washington Post admits is "flush with cash," got enough extra money to pass a budget that "hands bonuses to every state worker."

Even Atherton, California, where the median home price is $6 million, got Heroes Act money.

"There was no means test!" complains Lisa Conyers, author of "Welfare for the Rich," in my latest video.

Omni Hotels & Resorts received $68 million in loans. Major airlines got $25 billion in loans from the CARES Act.

"Who wouldn't like to play Santa Claus?" asks Conyers. "Who wouldn't like to just be able to give everybody some money?"

Welfare for the rich didn't start with coronavirus relief bills. Politicians have done it for years, and a pandemic didn't stop them.

Nevada politicians gave Oakland Raiders owner Mark Davis $750 million for a new stadium. A stadium designer says Davis insisted on the very best, including natural grass on a field that "moves in and out of the building in one piece."

Cool. But why didn't Davis pay for it himself?

"I'm not a billionaire," he said.

But he is. The team is valued at more than $3 billion, and Davis and his mom co-own 47 percent of it.

Politicians screw taxpayers to build stadiums for lots of rich people.

Minnesota gave the Minnesota Vikings $348 million for their new stadium. Santa Clara, California, gave the San Francisco 49ers $114 million, plus $850 million in loans. Team co-owner Denise York and her family are worth $3.5 billion, says Forbes. She ought to fund her own stadium.

"The taxpayers often vote for this stuff," I say to Conyers, "so they must like it."

"(T)hey're promised there's going to be all these jobs," she replies, "not only at the stadium but at the hotels that are going to rise up around the stadium."

Politicians always promise that public investment will return more in benefits to taxpayers. But it's not true.

A study by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City found new stadiums bring in about $40 million in jobs and tax benefits, much less than the $188 million that taxpayers pay.

Handouts to other corporations fare no better.

Ohio politicians gave General Motors millions in tax credits to keep its Lordstown plant open. GM then closed the plant. Politicians let GM keep a third of the money.

Wisconsin gave nearly $3 billion in tax breaks to Foxconn because it promised to create 13,000 jobs. Now the company promises to create only 1,454.

"If you look at the cost of each job, it was a million dollars," Conyers points out.

Actually, it was more than a million.

Politicians often justify this corporate welfare by saying, "We didn't give cash, just tax breaks."

But "If some big company is in that town and they are not paying property tax, that means every other taxpayer is covering for them," Conyers points out. "(F)ire departments still have to be paid for. Police departments still have to be paid for. Schools still have to be paid for!"

Then there's the farm subsidy scam.

Both Republicans and Democrats eagerly give your money to agribusiness, even though farmers are now richer than the average American.

The politicians claim the handouts are not a payoff for political contributions but to "make sure there's enough food to go around," since "farmers have no control over price fluctuations and the weather."

But that's absurd. Other businesses adjust to price fluctuations and weather. America doesn't subsidize fruit and vegetable farmers -- yet we have plenty of fruits and vegetables.

The politicians claim they want to help "small family farms," but they give 90 percent of the subsidies to the biggest farms.

Such welfare for the rich persists because, years ago, politicians voted for a handout, and once they start giving your money away, they never stop.

"I'm an American taxpayer," says Conyers. "I don't understand why money is leaving my pocket and going into the pocket of somebody who is wealthy."

Me either.

Sunday, May 09, 2021

MICROAGGRESSIONS, QUESTIONABLE SCIENCE, AND FREE SPEECH

 Here is a link to the paper.

Worth a read.  Shows the lack of scientific basis, or even objective meaning, to the notion of microaggression.

The New Enemies of the Open Society

 Here is Michael Esfeld at the American Institute for Economic Research. Michael Esfeld is a professor of philosophy of science at the University of Lausanne, Switzerland.

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Karl Popper's book The Open Society and its Enemies, published in 1945, was one of the intellectual foundations of the political course that resulted in the formation of a Western community to oppose the Soviet empire. The assertion of freedom against the claim to power of totalitarianism set a trend that encompassed all the major social groups and political parties in the West. This setting shaped politics and society for four decades. In 1989, no new course seemed necessary: freedom and the rule of law had prevailed. That was a mistake. We now face again a crossroads between freedom and totalitarianism.

The open society is characterized by recognizing every human being as a person: the person has an inalienable dignity. When we think and act, we are free. This freedom gives rise to fundamental rights. These are rights of defense against external interference in one’s own judgement about how one wants to conduct one’s life.

By contrast, according to Popper, the intellectual enemies of the open society are those who claim to possess knowledge of a common good. This knowledge is both factual-scientific and normative-moral: it is moral knowledge about the highest good together with technocratic knowledge about how to steer people’s lives in order to achieve this good. Therefore, this knowledge stands above the freedom of individual people, namely above their own judgement about how they want to shape their lives.

These enemies of the open society have lost their credibility as a result of the mass murders that proved inevitable on the way to accomplish the alleged good. Not only were human dignity and fundamental rights eliminated, but at the same time a bad result was achieved in relation to the alleged good. Under communist regimes, on the way to a classless, exploitation-free society, more severe economic exploitation occurred than ever seen in a capitalist society. Under National Socialism, the path to the goal of a pure-blooded Volksgemeinschaft led these very people to the brink of ruin.

Nonetheless, today, we face new enemies of the open society from within our own societies. Again, they make knowledge claims that are both cognitive and moral. The difference is that they don’t operate with the mirage of an absolute good, but with deliberately stoked fear of threats, such as the spread of the coronavirus or climate change. These are undoubtedly serious challenges. But they are employed to set certain values absolute, such as health protection or climate protection.

An alliance of some scientists, politicians and business leaders claims to have the knowledge of how to steer society down to family and individual life in order to safeguard these values. Again, the issue is about a higher social good – health protection, living conditions of future generations – that is posed as overriding individual human dignity and basic rights.

The mechanism employed is to spotlight these challenges in such a way that they appear as existential crises: a killer virus going around, a climate crisis threatening the livelihoods of our children. The fear that is stirred up in this way then makes it possible to gain acceptance for setting aside the basic values of our coexistence – just as in the totalitarianisms criticized by Popper, in which the supposedly good motivated many people to commit de facto criminal acts.

This mechanism strikes the open society at its heart, because one plays out a well-known problem, namely the one of negative externalities. The freedom of one person ends where it threatens the freedom of others. Actions of one person, including the contracts she enters into, have an impact on third parties who are outside of these relationships, but whose freedom to shape their lives can be impaired by these actions. The boundary beyond which the free shaping of one’s life causes harm to the free shaping of the lives of others is not fixed from the outset. It can be set in a broad or in a narrow way. The mentioned mechanism consists in spreading fear and exploiting the moral value of solidarity to define this boundary in so narrow a manner that, in the end, there is no room for the free shaping of one’s life left: any exercise of freedom can be construed as generating negative externalities that threaten the freedom of others.

The new enemies of the open society stoke fears of the spread of a supposed once-in-a-century pandemic – but, of course, every form of physical contact can contribute to spreading the coronavirus (as well as other viruses and bacteria). They stoke fears of an impending climate catastrophe – but, of course, every action has an impact on the non-human environment and may thus contribute to climate change.

Consequently, everyone has to prove that their actions do not unintentionally further the spread of a virus or the change of climate, etc. – this list could be extended at will. In this manner, everybody is placed under a general suspicion of potentially harming others with everything they do.

The burden of proof thus is reversed: it is no longer required to provide concrete evidence that someone impairs the freedom of others with certainty of their actions. Rather, everyone must prove from the outset that their actions cannot have unintended consequences that potentially harm others. Accordingly, people can free themselves from this general suspicion only by acquiring a certificate that clears them – like a vaccination certificate, a sustainability passport or a social pass in general. This is a kind of modern sale of indulgences.

The crossroads with which we are confronted hence is this one: an open society that unconditionally recognizes everyone as a person with an inalienable dignity and fundamental rights; or a closed society to whose social life one gains access through a certificate whose conditions are defined by certain experts, as envisaged by Plato’s philosopher-kings. Like the latter, whose knowledge claims were debunked by Popper, their present-day descendants have no knowledge that would put them in a position to set such conditions without arbitrariness.

We see a well-known result confirmed: if one places value X – in the present case health protection, or climate protection – above human dignity and fundamental rights, then one not only destroys these, but also eventually achieves a bad result in relation to X. The serious negative effects for health protection, for the entire population and viewed globally, as a consequence of the devastating damage caused by lockdowns and the like are now evident.

By the same token, the facts already show that CO2 emissions in industrialised countries without an energy transition hitherto (such as the US, France, England) have declined by the same percentage as in countries that have pursued an energy transition at enormous costs in the last 20 years (Germany). The decisive factor is technological innovation and not political paternalism based on the advice of scientists who claim moral-normative knowledge to control society.

Why does this happen? For many scientists and intellectuals, it is apparently difficult to admit to not having normative knowledge that enables the steering of society. They succumb to the temptation that Popper already identified in the intellectuals and scientists he criticized. For politicians, it is not attractive to do nothing and let people’s lives take their course.

Hence, they welcome the opportunity to talk up old challenges that arise in a new form into existential crises and to spread fear with pseudo-scientific models that lead to catastrophic forecasts. Then, scientists can put themselves in the limelight with political demands that have no legal limits due to the alleged emergency. This scientific legitimacy then provides politicians with a power to interfere in people’s lives that they could never obtain through democratic, constitutional means. They are willingly joined by those business people who profit from this policy and can pass on the risks of their economic activities to the taxpayer.

Some scientists, politicians and business leaders were prepared to use the next virus outbreak to push such plans. But Popper’s philosophy of science teaches us that no individual or group of individuals can determine the course of society by means of a prepared plan (a “conspiracy”). It was contingent circumstances – such as perhaps the images from Wuhan and Bergamo – combined with panic reactions that led to the result that this time these plans found favor in broad circles of media, politicians and scientists.

This situation compares well with the outbreak of the First World War, which also developed out of contingent circumstances in July 1914. Indeed, there is the danger of the history of the 20th century repeating itself in the 21st century: the political handling of the corona pandemic is equivalent to the First World War.

Demands for a radical reset of society like zero Covid and its counterpart in climate activism correspond to Bolshevism. Against these demands and the failure of the elites as a whole, a radical right-wing populism is forming that could develop into the contemporary equivalent of fascism. The economic consequences of the lockdowns and the unlimited money printing to cover them up may lead to inflation and eventually an economic crisis like the one at the end of the 1920s. It is important to be aware of this danger, to recognize the parallels with the course of the 20th century and to oppose the fatal trend that has formed in dealing with the corona pandemic.

The problem that comes to light here is an old one. It is also inherent in the purely protective state: in order to protect everyone effectively from violence, the whereabouts of everyone at all times would have to be verifiable; in order to protect everyone’s health effectively from infection by viruses, the physical contacts of everyone at all times would have to be controllable. The problem is the arbitrary definition of negative externalities, against which even classical liberalism and libertarianism aren’t immune; for it is not simply obvious what counts and what doesn’t count as a negative externality.

Thus, one can derive negative externalities from the spread of viruses or the change in the world’s climate that ultimately occur in all human actions and call for regulation, be it state regulation or market regulation via the expansion of property rights. For example, one could grant each person property rights to the air around them, so that this air must not be contaminated by viruses that are spread by human bodies or must meet certain climatic conditions that are influenced by human actions, etc.

Consequently, the opposition is not that between the state and free markets. Control can be exercised by state or private entities. The certificates that cleanse people of producing negative externalities and that allow them to participate in social and economic life can be issued by private or state agencies. There can be competition with regard to them and their concrete design. All this is ultimately irrelevant. The point is the totalitarianism of all-encompassing control.

This totalitarianism can only be countered by a substantial conception of persons that is based on their freedom and their dignity. Such a conception recognizes fundamental rights that apply unconditionally: their validity cannot be subordinated to a higher goal. On this foundation, one can then delimit negative externalities in the guise of concrete and significant damage to the freedom of others, which indeed call for external interventions in the way people conduct their lives.

It is high time that we become aware of the crossroads at which we stand. Doing so requires a sober attitude that does not allow itself to be clouded by the fears stirred up by the new enemies of the open society; namely the respect and trust in what distinguishes each and every one of us as a rational living being: the dignity of the person, which consists in her freedom of thought and action.

Saturday, May 08, 2021

Where to go for the truth about climate

 Here is one of the best websites to go to if you are interested in the truth about climate.

Judith Curry

Here is Judith Curry's CV

A letter to an esteemed climate scientist and her reply

To the Esteemed Dr. Judith Curry:

You don’t know me but I am a frequent reader of your articles and find them to be fascinating, as well as eye-opening. Unsure if it is at all welcome to offer you some words of encouragement, but first I would like to explain in detail why I decided to contact you by e-mail with this rather strange method of offering a message. It is because you changed my mind about global warming and climate change entirely. Rest assured, I am not the only one who is beginning to see things in a different more scientific light.

I grew up in the 90’s ‘era’ of ‘acid rain is going to kill us all!’ ‘all the trees are going to be cut down!’ ‘people do more harm than good for the environment!’ Any kind of frightening prediction that you can think of and immediately name, I was subject to it, and at an age where I didn’t fully understand the meaning of ‘question what you hear’. I fully believed–literally, until this very year–that the Earth was going to perish in flame, the oceans would be covered in oil, the rainforests would all vanish and that Earth would very much resemble every circle of Hell in Dante’s Inferno. It also didn’t help matters considering I grew up with a very, VERY Jehovah’s Witness aunt and uncle, who kept repeating to me that the world would end! Add frequent news reports to the mix (I was not in any position to disregard it–my late mother would blare it through the house) and you have quite the sizeable ball of anxiety. No, seriously, I was diagnosed with GAD along with depression during my middle school years.

I wince now seeing all the younger people (I’m in my early thirties) acting exactly as I did–going forth with the mentality that humans are a plague and that they ruin EVERYTHING good. That was the first twinge of ‘something isn’t right’. We live in the least polluted country out of them all, our air quality has improved drastically, the forests are mostly intact, MORE greening is happening, and endangered species are making comebacks that I never could have imagined in my younger years. So why then, are we constantly bombarded with ‘humans are the disease’ messages? The constant blaring siren of ‘DO SOMETHING!’ wore me down to the point where I was seeking some kind of reassurance–not the best way to deal with an issue, but it was my method–and I happened upon your site. My ‘side’ frequently sneered at scientists who either try to douse the figurative flames created from their panic or better yet, prevent the fires from spreading. Why wouldn’t anyone want to hear, “Good news! The planet is NOT doomed!’?

I heard so much about these ‘climate deniers’ and I felt anxious upon coming to your site as if I was actually viewing the forbidden fruit from afar, thinking that at any moment, I would be struck down by an avenging angel for disobedience. (Again, grew up in a somewhat Christian household, didn’t exactly help matters…) Nothing of the sort happened. I scoffed at first thinking, “This person is entirely wrong. The climate is bad, people are going to die, there’s flooding happening over the ocean SOMEWHERE–” And then I stopped myself remembering that I once lived, for over twenty years of my life, NEAR A TOWN NEAR THE OCEAN. Nothing of that sort even vaguely happened! In fact the ocean’s level near my old hometown hasn’t risen by much. We’ve had only a handful of hurricanes hit in the course of two decades.

If climate ‘deniers’ were so deranged and so into helping ‘big business’ then why is it that their sites depend solely on donations, and why are their arguments so clear and concise? You don’t sound deranged at all, being a scientist (someone who actively USES THE SCIENTIFIC METHOD TO OBSERVE! Yes I know so many caps, but I wish there were individuals in the back who could hear this!), so why is it the goal to dehumanize the people who are actively studying the effects of climate and climate itself? It made no sense. Then I went to Watt’s Up With That?, Not A Lot of People Know That, CFACT, Farm Babe, the list goes on and on, and I wanted to challenge my own views (as if they were my own views…they were not, they were impressions slammed into me at the tender age of ten…) and I found a wealth of points that were more sound and less theatric than, say, shouting the world is on FIRE. How sad it is for actual science that its true practitioners get the boot in favor of junk science. (“Because it’s settled and we say so, so there!”)

Meanwhile the actual deranged ‘scientists’ are people like Bill Nye (it hurts me to type this because I actually liked him very much as a child–his show was quite entertaining and informative) insisting that people must DIE in order for the planet to survive. I can safely say I’d much rather avoid talking to them than to someone who says “Fossil fuels burned by humans aren’t changing the planet and here’s why.” At least the ‘denier’ doesn’t want me dead simply for breathing

Please, please, PLEASE…keep doing what you do, and I hope you and your peers succeed in changing many more minds before this madness can come to fruition! You don’t know this but you bring people hope rather than despair, you and Michael Schellenberger, Roger Pielke Jr., Paul Homewood, and many others I’m sure I have left out due to faulty memory (or lack of research, if you could point me to many others I may have missed, please let me know if you are so inclined.

JC comments

The strategy of ‘scaring the children’ is absolutely reprehensible. I grew up in the late 1950’s-1960’s. The children-scaring tactic of that period was the Russians – they were ready to take over the U.S., we would be bombed (remember the bomb shelters of that era?), we would lose our freedoms, your neighbors could be Russian spies (anyone see the TV show The Americans? It is superb). This scare was conveyed to me by a Catholic nun, which was amplified in the school yard. At the ripe old age of 8, I ended up with stomach ulcer, worrying about all this. My doctor told me not to worry about this stuff, it was all silly politics, and to just enjoy my childhood. I said ‘Ok’, and I was pretty much done with all that. But explicit government sanctioned and academic efforts in ‘cli-sci communications’ (climate ‘crisis’, ’emergency’, ‘extinction’) to scare children over climate change for political purposes is absolutely reprehensible.

Such scare tactics will backfire, as children grow up and they see the scary prophesies to be unfulfilled. We’re breeding generations of people that are learning to distrust scientists. More harm is being done to children with scary climate stories than any consequence of climate change in their lifetime.

In the meantime, Climate Etc. and other blogs are acting as an important antidote to such unjustified, reprehensible and damaging rhetoric.

Thursday, May 06, 2021

Justice at the Supreme Court – Or is it?

 Here is Jonathan Turley - on target yet again.

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The often-divided Supreme Court reached an almost unanimous decision on Monday. It was the wrong decision.

The court refused to review the case of a rape victim who was barred from having her case heard in federal courts because “Jane Doe” was serving in our military. Only one justice demanded justice for the former West Point cadet: Clarence Thomas.

The injustice of the court’s decision, however, goes beyond “Jane Doe” and extends to every member of the military.

The court missed the opportunity to overturn one of its most infamous, indefensible doctrines. Created more than 70 years ago, the Feres Doctrine has victimized hundreds of thousands of service members and their families. The court’s failure should now put pressure on Congress to finally act to end the tragic legacy of the Feres decision.

I have been a vocal critic of Feres for decades and wrote a three-part study of the military legal system 20 years ago that detailed how this doctrine began in 1950 with a clearly erroneous reading of the Federal Tort Claims Act (FTCA). The doctrine is named after Army Lt. Rudolph Feres, who died in a fire allegedly caused by an unsafe heating system in his New York barracks. It was one of three cases combined for review by the court, including a soldier who sued after an Army doctor left a 30-by-18-inch towel (marked as “Medical Department U.S. Army” property) inside him.

These should have been easy cases of breathtaking negligence. The FTCA only bars lawsuits against the military for “combat-related” injuries — a logical and clear exception. However, the court set out to create a sweeping new immunity for the military and declared that any lawsuit by military personnel would be considered “combat related.” It was entirely nonsensical since there would be no reason to refer to combat if Congress wanted to grant total immunity for the military. Indeed, the late Justice Antonin Scalia denounced the doctrine as raw judicial activism. He was joined in his condemnation from the left by the late Justice John Paul Stevens.

The West Point case shows the legal lunacy and lethality of this doctrine. Jane Doe was a cadet who was allegedly raped by a fellow cadet and, according to court documents, came forward to bring charges. However, West Point failed to follow military regulation and she later dropped out of the academy. The district court and the Second Circuit then dismissed her lawsuit as “incident to service” and thus barred under the Feres Doctrine.

Those lower courts can be excused for dismissing the case. After all, this is a controlling Supreme Court precedent. But the Supreme Court itself has no such excuse.

The former cadet is not alone when it comes to negligence in handling criminal cases. In Illinois, eight women sued the Army for “harassment and retaliation, including rape, sodomy, unwelcome sexual advances and touching, requests for sexual favors, sexual innuendos, harassing phone calls, threats of physical harm, non-consensual sex and duress.” A federal court dismissed their lawsuit under Feres.

My study found an array of such cases. For example, soldier Julius Pringle was severely injured at a bar on a military reservation in Kansas that served both civilians and military personnel; a gang had effectively taken over the bar. After Pringle exchanged words with members of the gang who were harassing his girlfriend, bar managers had him thrown outside into the midst of waiting gang members. He was beaten so severely that he suffered brain damage. Yet, he was barred from suing.

I found many deaths caused by contractors who failed the most basic obligations in maintaining or using equipment, along with negligent acts that were long addressed in civilian businesses and deterred through civil liability. For example, Lt. Joseph McConnell was killed while waterskiing after a boat rented in Arizona from an Air Force recreation center surged out of control because of a mechanical failure and hit him.

In the area of medical malpractice, the study found practices and conduct that would be considered primeval in modern torts cases. When civilian doctors leave a patient paralyzed or crippled for a lifetime of care, family members often receive millions in compensation. In the military, families receive a couple thousand dollars a month and more military medical care. Take Dorothy Meagher, who found herself caring for her son after he entered a Navy hospital to have a cyst removed; due to an alleged overdose of anesthetics and the failure of a Navy doctor to call immediately for assistance, her son was left a quadriplegic.

Tort liability does not simply make victims whole but encourages others to take precautions. Yet, military families are left with a fraction of the financial help afforded to civilians and there is less incentive to bring equipment and practices up to modern standards.

As Justice Thomas correctly noted, the Feres Doctrine results in absurd results: “If two Pentagon employees — one civilian and one a service member — are hit by a bus in the Pentagon parking lot and sue, it may be that only the civilian would have a chance to litigate his claim on the merits.”

Thomas said it is time to end the “judicial legislating” and “if the Feres Doctrine is so wrong that we cannot figure out how to rein it in, then the better answer is to bid it farewell.” Indeed, it is a farewell that is 70 years overdue.

There is one other body that can do justice for military personnel: Congress. For 30 years, I have called on Congress to correct this judicial error. It needs to state expressly what already should be obvious in the FTCA: Military personnel have the same access to the courts except for injuries related to actual wartime or combat operations. Politicians are keen to use military personnel as props at Veteran’s Day and Memorial Day events. However, they have left them fodder for negligent military and contractor operations.

It is time for Congress to act and to put an end to the Feres Doctrine.