Tuesday, June 28, 2022

The Fed Can’t Cure Inflation by Itself

 Here is an insightful op-ed by John Cochrane at the Wall Street Journal.

JC is on target.

My guess is that, at least through 2024, the Government will continue to act in a manner that JC points out will exacerbate inflation or, at best, not reduce it much. A contributing reason is that I doubt that those voters demanding Government "solutions" to address their agendas will continue to do so, and those "solutions" require doing things that prevent controlling inflation.

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The current inflation was sparked by fiscal policy—the government printed or borrowed about $5 trillion, and sent checks to people and businesses. The U.S. has borrowed and spent before without causing inflation. People held the extra debt as a good investment. That this stimulus led to inflation thus reflects a broader loss of faith that the U.S. will repay its debt.

The Federal Reserve’s monetary-policy tools to cure this inflation are blunt. By raising interest rates, the Fed pushes the economy toward recession. It hopes to push just enough to offset the stimulus’s fiscal boost. But monetary brakes and a floored fiscal gas pedal mistreat the economic engine.

Raising interest rates can lower stock and bond prices and raise borrowing costs, cutting into home construction, car purchases and corporate investment. The Fed can interrupt the flow of credit. But higher interest rates don’t do much to discourage people from spending government stimulus checks. At best, the economy is unbalanced. The economy needs investment and housing. Today’s demand is tomorrow’s supply.

Slowing the economy isn’t guaranteed to reduce inflation durably anyway. Even in the 2008 recession, with unemployment above 8%, core inflation fell only from 2.4% in December 2007 to 0.6% in October 2010, and then bounced back to 2.3% in December 2011. At this rate, even temporarily curing 6% May 2022 core inflation would take a dismal recession. In 1970 and 1974, the Fed raised interest rates more promptly and more sharply than now, from 4% to 9% in 1970 and from 3.5% to 13% in 1974. Each rise produced a bruising recession. Each reduced inflation. Each time, inflation roared back.

The Phillips curve, by which the Fed believes slowing economic activity reduces inflation, is ephemeral. Some recessions and rate hikes even feature higher inflation, especially in countries with fiscal problems. The Fed will face fiscal headwinds. The Biden administration and Congress will wish to respond to a recession with more stimulus and another financial bailout, which will only lead to more inflation. A recession without the expected stimulus and bailout will be really severe.

Higher interest rates will directly make deficits worse by adding to the interest costs on the debt. Reducing inflation was hard enough in 1980, when federal debt was under 25% of gross domestic product. Now it is over 100%. Each percentage point interest rates are higher means $250 billion more in inflation-inducing deficit.

Many governments, including the U.S. under the Biden administration, want to address inflation by borrowing and printing even more money to help people pay their bills. That will only make matters worse. A witch hunt for “greed,” “monopoly” and “profiteers” will fail to make a dent in inflation, as it has for centuries. Price controls or political pressure to reduce prices will create long lines and exacerbate supply-chain snafus. Endless dog-ate-my-homework excuses, spin about “Putin’s price hike” and transparently silly ideas such as a gas-tax holiday only convince people that the government has no idea what it’s doing.

Monetary policy alone can’t cure a sustained inflation. The government will also have to fix the underlying fiscal problem. Short-run deficit reduction, temporary measures or accounting gimmicks won’t work. Neither will a bout of growth-killing high-tax “austerity.” The U.S. has to persuade people that over the long haul of several decades it will return to its tradition of running small primary surpluses that gradually repay debts. That outcome requires economic growth, which raises long-run taxable income. Raising tax rates alone is like climbing a sand dune, as each rise hurts income growth. The U.S. also needs spending reform, especially on entitlements. And it needs to break the cycle that each crisis will be met by a river of printed or borrowed money, bailouts for big financial firms and stimulus checks for voters.

The good news is that inflation can end quickly, and without a bruising recession, when there is joint fiscal, monetary and economic reform. The inflation targets New Zealand, Israel, Canada and Sweden adopted in the early 1990s are good examples. They included deep fiscal and economic reforms. The sudden end of German and Austrian hyperinflations in the 1920s, when fiscal problems were resolved, are more dramatic examples. In the U.S., tight money in the early 1980s was quickly followed by tax, spending and regulatory reform. Higher economic growth produced large fiscal surpluses by the end of the 1990s. Without those reforms, the monetary tightening might have failed again. If those reforms had come sooner, disinflation might well have been economically painless.

Monday, June 27, 2022

More extremism on the Left

 Here is a column by Jonathan Turley, ""The First Thing We Do": Liberals Push Two Leading Lawyers Out of Major Firm After Winning Second Amendment Case."

A good example of the decline of America. The US can be saved only if citizens stop putting up with this kind of behavior.

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As previously discussed, the campaign from the left to pressure firms to force our Republican lawyers or drop conservative clients with the support of lawyers and legal commentators. Now, after former Solicitor General Paul Clement and his colleague Erin Murphy won one of the most significant constitutional victories in history, Kirkland & Ellis has yielded to the mob and forced them out of the firm. It seems that, if you want to take a Second Amendment case, you should have the decency of losing. In a column in the Wall Street Journal, the lawyers recount how they were shown the door after objections from lawyers in the firm and clients. The left appears to be channeling the views of Dick the Butcher in Shakespeare’s Henry VI that “The first thing we do, let’s kill all the lawyers.”

With no sense of shame or self-awareness, Jon Ballis, chairman of Kirkland’s executive committee, said “We wish them the best of luck in the future and look forward to collaborating with them in matters not involving the Second Amendment.”Imagine if the firm said that about defending other individuals rights like equal protection or privacy. It is not hard because that was the position at one time where lawyers were told not to represent women, civil rights groups, or other causes. Now, it is the left that it pressuring firms not to represent those asserting rights contained in the Bill of Rights. Ballis is saying that you are welcome to return as long as you do not represent those people who want to submit claims to the federal courts on constitutional rights.

The Supreme Court has decided since Heller that the Second Amendment bestows an individual right. Many disagree with that view, but these are issues that need to be fully and well argued before the courts on both sides. I would be writing the same column if conservatives sought to prevent lawyers from representing pro-choice or gun control clients. What is astonishing is that this effort sounds like it was pushed by other lawyers, including former colleagues at the firm.

In the past, the effort to deny representation to conservative groups was led by the scandal-plagued Lincoln Project. What was shocking was the list of donors supporting this and other campaigns by the project. One notable name is Randall Eliason who writes for the Washington Post. Eliason wrote a column that I previously criticized that supported the campaign against other lawyers. While Eliason notes briefly that the Lincoln Project was suspended on Twitter for doxing Trump lawyers and says such abuses are “never appropriate,” he did not mention that he is one of the donors of the group that carried out such abuses.

Having other lawyers calling for such severance of lawyers and clients does not change its character as a form of mob justice. These campaigns have been successful in intimidating firms, including one of the largest firms in the world. Rather than risk the loss of clients, Kirkland & Ellis turned its back on the core legal values that define our profession. This is a huge victory for the voices of intolerance and orthodoxy in our profession. With a major firm like Kirkland surrendering to such pressure, many smaller firms will doubt their own ability to stand on principle against the mob. It is the same movement that has stripped most law schools of conservative or libertarian faculty across the country.

If it is any solace for these lawyers, Chief Justice Earl Warren, a liberal icon, “Everything I did in my life that was worthwhile, I caught hell for.”

Saturday, June 25, 2022

Three reasons why a gas tax holiday is a bad idea

 Greg Mankiw gets it right on his blog.

Both the release of oil from the strategic reserve and dropping the gas tax accomplish nothing of consequence and, in the latter case, make things worse.

Government is the problem, not the solution. But, wait a minute - isn't Government just responding to what voters want? If so, then the problem really is the electorate.

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News reports say the President Biden may propose a temporary reduction in the gasoline tax, and Secretary Yellen over the weekend said the idea is "worth considering." I would say the idea is worth rejecting, for three reasons.

1. Putting more money in peoples' pockets with any kind of tax cut would increase aggregate demand. It would thereby undermine the Fed's program to get inflation under control.

2. The incidence of the tax cut would fall partly on producers rather than consumers, depending on the elasticities of supply and demand. If it is true that refiners are near capacity, as reports suggest, then supply is relatively inelastic. That means the tax reduction would mainly benefit producers.

3. Given all the externalities associated with driving (climate change, congestion, accidents), the existing gasoline tax is below the optimal Pigovian level. Reducing it would move the tax system in a less efficient direction, That is, it would encourage people to drive more, exacerbating the negative externalities.

Friday, June 24, 2022

Why The Senate’s Rushed Gun Bill Will Not Make America Any Safer

 John Lott gets it right at the Federalist.

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Senators are billing the new Senate gun control legislation as a bipartisan breakthrough that will make us much safer. “Our legislation will save lives and will not infringe on any law-abiding American’s Second Amendment rights,” claim Sens. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), John Cornyn (R-Texas), Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) and Thom Tillis (R-N.C.). But the bill will do nothing to prevent the mass public shootings, which motivated it, and will likely increase suicides. It is a mess.

The Republican Senators caved in the negotiations. Take Red Flag laws. Republicans, such as John Cornyn, promised to oppose federal funding of state red flag laws “unless their red flag law contains a full set of due process and Bill of Rights protections in the Constitution.” But the Senate bill only requires a hearing where you have the right to know the opposing evidence and can confront adverse witnesses after your guns are already taken away.

These laws are virtually always used to prevent suicide. When people pose a clear danger to themselves or to others, they should be confined to a mental health facility. If someone is really suicidal, simply taking away his gun won’t solve the problem anyway. There are too many ways for people to kill themselves.

If anything, “red flag” laws harm people who need genuine help; absent such laws, a person contemplating suicide might speak to a friend or family member and be dissuaded from that tragic course of action. With these laws in place, individuals may fear that confiding in someone will result in a report to the authorities, possibly leading to the loss of their ability to defend themselves or their loved ones. Indeed, my research with Professor Carl Moody at William & Mary found that these laws slightly increase suicide rates.

More funding for mental health is fine, but don’t expect it to stop mass public shootings. Over half of those committing mass public shootings in the last 25 years saw mental health care professionals before their attack. Yet, in not one single case were these mental health care professionals able to identify these murderers as a danger to themselves or others.

For example, the Buffalo mass murderer underwent a mental health evaluation last year after threatening to shoot up a school and then kill himself, but he was released when he told the mental health professionals that he was merely joking. The problem is that unless someone is stupid and says that they are serious about committing the crime, it is possible to evade detection by mental health professionals.

So what do you do if you can’t identify who these mass murderers are in advance? Completely ignored in the bill is any discussion of gun-free zones. While 30 percent of the schools in Texas have armed teachers and staff, the Robb Elementary School in Uvalde, Texas banned guns. The Tulsa, Oklahoma, hospital shooting was another gun-free zone. The Buffalo shooting wrote in his manifesto: “Areas where” carrying with a concealed weapon “are outlawed or prohibited may be good areas of attack.”

Nor are those cases unique. Ninety-six percent of all the mass public shootings keep occurring in places where guns are banned. These murderers might be crazy, but they aren’t stupid. They know that the more people they kill, the more media attention they can get, and if they go to a place where people can’t defend themselves, they can kill more people.

People think that if you only ban guns from areas, you make them safer. But gun-free zones serve as magnets for attacks. The murderers depend on the victims being defenseless.

The NRA has “a membership and a business model that will not allow them to support any legislation,” Senator John Cornyn (R-TX) claimed. “And so I understand where they’re coming from, but I think most people will not allow any outside group to veto good public policy.”

It is well past time that we address these mass public shootings. But, unfortunately, too many Republicans, such as Senator Cornyn, are more concerned about “doing something” than fighting to do something that makes things better. Let’s come up with proposals that matter—starting with eliminating “gun-free zones.”

Tuesday, June 14, 2022

The Road Not Taken

 Joseph Gascho, MD, in the Journal of the American Medical Association - Neuology.

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I wonder if other people are like me: ponder in bed about what dire medical diagnosis they will receive, what will be the cause of their demise when they can’t sleep at 2 am. I am a cardiologist and I have had my own share of illnesses (coronary artery disease requiring a stent, aortic stenosis treated with a transcatheter aortic valve replacement) but strangely, it is not cardiac events that I consider. For me, it is cancer. If I have had vague abdominal discomfort the day before, in the middle of the night I worry, “Do I have pancreatic cancer?” I warn my patients, especially those with atrial fibrillation, about strokes, but a stroke was something I thought little about until recently.

Early one morning while on my daily walk, I suddenly lost my balance and almost fell. I sat on the curb for a few minutes. Stupidly, I did not call my wife, sat for a few minutes, staggered home, and called the emergency department and told the attending physician about my sudden lack of balance. It took him all of 5 seconds to tell me to get myself in to the emergency department. We were there in 10 minutes and I was witness to the stroke alert that I had read about when prepping for my Advanced Cardiac Life Support recertification. “Brain attack” sounded over the speakers. Three people took my history, started an intravenous catheter, and took blood samples within 3 minutes. My head was in the computed tomography scanner in 10 minutes. No bleed. “We want to give you a lytic.” It should have been a no-brainer, but I agonized, asked them to let me walk a bit to see if I was still ataxic (I was), and tried to reach my cardiologist (too early in the morning). The risk of bleeding into my head weighed on me. But wisely, with the urging of my wife and the emergency room physician, I agreed.

All went well. There were the hourly “Where are you? Who is the president? What day is it?” questions and blood pressure checks. Frequent finger-sticks for blood glucose testing. Finally, up and out of bed in 24 hours—and my gait was back to normal. Then next day, the magnetic resonance imaging that showed a small embolic stroke in an area of the brain that controlled balance.

And now, 1 month out, I still sometimes wake at 2 am and I reflect; part of me is ever so grateful. I am back to normal, whatever that is for me. Only a physician would do it. I get up and walk around the room, heel-to-toe. Then I put my feet together and close my eyes and feel reassured when I can keep my balance for 20 seconds without opening my eyes. But stroke is now on that list of “This could be the thing that takes you out,” and high on that list.

My mind is drawn to one of the books I frequently read at night, before falling asleep: a book of poetry by Robert Frost. My favorite poem is “The Road Not Taken.” Frost sat, debating, in his cart pulled by his faithful horse, about which road to take. I used to reflect on my own life, putting myself in that cart. I could have chosen the stay-on-the-farm road that my father would have liked. Or I could have ended up a certified public accountant or teaching biology at a university. But I chose medicine, and cardiology, instead. The poem comforted me. I was the one to make the decisions. I was in control (as much as a human can be in control).

But now I think of myself as a passive bystander, watching the cart. “Which path will it take?” I think about that nefarious clot, loosed from my atrium (or from who knows where), traveling north, not making a U-turn at the arch, heading to my brain, stopping at some point, trying to decide which artery to visit. Would it end up in the Broca area, or the frontal lobe where decisions are made, or the cerebellum? My clot took that last path. Even while I was stumbling around early that morning, grabbing at the walls to keep my balance, I could say the words I needed to say to my wife, I could opt for the right decisions. Why it took the road it took, I will never know. It could have been otherwise.

And then I break out in a cold sweat, knowing how day leads onto day. Is another path kept for another day?

Monday, June 13, 2022

Pelosi’s Court: How the Jan. 6 Committee Undermined its Own Legitimacy

 From Jonathan Turley. JT is on target.

It is tempting to blame Pelosi for what she does - but the real fault lies with those who elect her.

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Below is my column in The Hill on the January 6th Committee hearings and how the Democrats undermined the legitimacy of their investigation by breaking the long tradition of bipartisan and balanced membership on such special committees. Many of us support the effort to release more information and evidence on what occurred on that day. However, Speaker Nancy Pelosi decided to forego even the pretense of a bipartisan and full inquiry.

Here is the column:

In 1924, Lord Gordon Hewart famously declared, “Justice should not only be done, but should manifestly and undoubtedly be seen to be done.” The lord chief justice of England, he believed that even a small allegation of possible bias by a court clerk meant justice was not seen to be done and, thus, was not done.

Lord Hewart’s quote came to mind while watching the opening night of the House’s Jan. 6 select committee public hearings. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) decided a year ago to break from tradition and blocked two Republican committee members selected by GOP leaders. In response, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) pulled his other committee nominees, and Pelosi then seated two staunchly anti-Trump Republicans — Reps. Liz Cheney (Wyoming) and Adam Kinzinger (Illinois).

Congress has a long history of bipartisan investigatory and select committees. Many were formed during deep political rifts — yet, for 230 years, Congress maintained the need for bipartisan membership. That was the case with the Watergate committees, the House Committee on Assassinations, the Special Committee to Investigate the National Defense Program, the House Select Committee to Investigate Covert Arms Transactions and other investigations. It would have been easy to stack the decks and limit the members by party on each of those committees, but past congressional leaders understood that the credibility of such investigations required balance, including opposing views.

Pelosi’s decision to gut that process was something of a signature muscle play. As a witness in the first Trump impeachment, I was highly critical of her insistence that the House would impeach before Christmas rather than conduct the traditional impeachment investigation with witnesses. Instead of building a more convincing case, Pelosi preferred to impeach with virtually no record, for a certain defeat in the Senate. In the second impeachment, she went one better: She held no hearing at all and pushed through the first “snap impeachment.”

The Jan. 6 committee was similarly stripped of any pretense. It was as subtle a political move as Pelosi’s ripping up President Trump’s State of the Union speech. Asked what she hoped to achieve from the committee on the first day of hearings, Pelosi tellingly referred to it as a “narrative.” It is the difference between seeing and simulating justice.

According to The New York Times, that narrative is meant to “recast the midterm message” and “give [Democrats] a platform for making a broader case about why they deserve to stay in power.” It was packaged with the help of a high-powered media figure brought in to help stage the event. Much of the media touted how the hearings would be “must-see TV” and would force voters “not to look away” from Trump’s “coup.” Countervailing evidence was edited out. Thus, Trump was shown calling for the protesters to “march” on the Capitol — but not his additional words to do so “peacefully.”

That withheld line from Trump would hardly have exonerated the former president. I publicly condemned Trump’s speech while it was being given, and I called for a bipartisan vote of censure over his responsibility in the Capitol riot. The new footage shown by the committee only magnified the revulsion many of us felt in watching this desecration of our Capitol and our constitutional process. However, such one-sided accounts rob these proceedings of a sense of authenticity and authority.

However, they deliver precisely what Pelosi demands: politics unburdened by process. Ironically, it is the very same dismissal of process and principle that is often attributed to Trump.

The shame is that it could have been so much more if the committee were balanced and allowed a broader scope of inquiry.

For example, the first two witnesses highlighted the ongoing controversy over the failure of Congress to adequately prepare for the riot despite repeated warnings from the executive branch. Capitol Police officer Caroline Edwards and Nick Quested, a British documentarian, both noted the shocking absence of sufficient officers around the Capitol. Quested described “hundreds” of Proud Boys marching on the Capitol and seeing a single officer at one barricade; Edwards described a handful of officers holding back hundreds of protesters. Critical anti-riot equipment was not distributed or was affirmatively withheld. Security objectives were ignored, and even Edwards said officers were quickly and easily overrun due to lack of support.

Four days before the riot, records indicate the Capitol allegedly was asked if it wanted to request National Guard troops but declined. Yet The Washington Post and PolitiFact have insisted this is false. It would be useful to get the full story on what decisions were made — but House leaders appear to have curtailed inquiries into the failure to properly staff or equip officers at the scene, to erect fencing, or to call for the National Guard after the riot erupted.

This first hearing looked like the uncontested opening statement in a persona non grata proceeding, a hearing designed to denounce or expel an individual. Much of the evidence was designed to show that Trump repeatedly was told that he lost the election and thus had no good faith basis to challenge the election’s certification.

Well, many of us said exactly that two years ago. Moreover, if the effort is to convict Trump of being a narcissistic or craven person, you hardly need a select committee to make that case to the Democratic base or to much of the rest of America.

Perhaps the most surprising element in the start of the hearings is the person who was portrayed as the guardian of democracy: former Attorney General William Barr. After Democrats called for Barr to be impeached or even criminally charged, he was shown repeatedly as holding the line against Trump’s claims and demands. For those of us who have defended Barr for years, it was a welcome but weird sight to behold.

There is considerable evidence that Trump’s people planned for a certification challenge, but that was always anticipated. Not long after the election, I wrote about that possibility in what I called the “Death Star strategy.” It is not a crime to plan such a challenge, even without good cause. Without any direct connection to organizing or supporting the ensuing violence, that would remain a moral — not a legal — failure.

Indeed, if opposing views were allowed, then Republicans likely would call for the testimony of committee Chairman Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.), who voted to challenge the certification of the 2004 results of President George W. Bush’s reelection; committee member Jamie Raskin (D-Md.) sought to challenge Trump’s certification in 2016. Both did so under the very law that Trump’s congressional supporters used in 2020. And Pelosi and Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) praised the challengeorganized by then-Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.) in 2004.

The difference, of course, is that while there were violent protests in 2016 in Washington, there was not a riot that breached the Capitol. Yet, given that history, it was more important than ever for House leaders to reinforce the credibility of this committee by adhering to the long-respected principle of bipartisan appointments.

But this is Speaker Pelosi’s — not Lord Hewart’s — “court,” where the only thing “manifestly and undoubtedly” guaranteed is politics, without the pretense of principle.

Saturday, June 11, 2022

The fall of David Sabatini, one of the greatest scientists of his generation

 Here is Suzy Weiss at bariweiss.substack.com. She's worth supporting. Go there and contribute.

This looks like another example of Woke and Cancel leading to poor decision making and failure to provide due process. Sabatini's research that now will not be done or will be significantly delayed could well lead to many lives needlessly lost.

This story is about fairness and tradeoffs. It's another example of Woke, Cancel, and Me Too replacing due process and rationality with raw anger and revenge. If the day comes that I need a surgeon to do a risky surgery, I choose the best surgeon - even if she is a horrible person. And with Sabatini, the maximum likelihood estimate appear to be that he didn't do anything wrong worth wasting anyone's time on.

A possible corollary? It's safest not to be around Kristin Knouse.

Here is SW's article.

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In 2018, David Sabatini was a world-renowned molecular biologist. He was a tenured professor at MIT. He ran a major lab at the Whitehead Institute, overseeing a team of 39 researchers, postdocs and technicians. Their job was to disentangle the mystery of the mTOR signaling pathway, a protein Sabatini had discovered while still in medical school, at Johns Hopkins. The mTOR signaling pathway plays a critical role in tumor development. Figuring out how it works would go a long way toward saving countless lives.

This was why Sabatini was predicted to win the Nobel Prize. It was how he reeled in between three and four million dollars every year for his lab from the National Institutes of Health, the Pentagon and the Howard Hughes Medical Institute, among others. It is why his colleagues have described him to me with words like “genius,” “one of the best scientists alive,” and “a pillar.”

“It’s like working for Steve Jobs. He can be brutal,” said one scientist. “But why would you want to work for anyone else?”

Today, Sabatini is unemployed and unemployable. No one wants to be associated with him. Those who do risk losing their jobs, publishing opportunities, friends, visas, and huge federal grants. “What wormhole did my life take, to billionaires and protests and being called a sexual predator? What quirk in the universe allowed this to happen?” Sabatini asked me.

The entrance to the wormhole can be found in Rockville, Maryland, at a hotel that Sabatini was staying at while attending a conference about lysosomes and cancer sponsored by the National Institutes of Health. There, on the night of April 18, 2018, after an evening of whiskey tasting—Sabatini is a whiskey aficionado—he and Kristin Knouse had sex. Knouse was an incoming cancer researcher at the Whitehead, where she would also head her own lab; hers focused on liver regeneration. He was 50. She was 29. He had split with his wife, and was in the process of getting a divorce.

The next month they met up at Knouse’s condo near Boston Common where they discussed a few ground rules for their tryst. They agreed they could see other people. Knouse, Sabatini remembers, had ongoing flings with men who she referred to with nicknames like “anesthesiologist fuck buddy,” “finance bro,” and “physics professor,” and she wanted to keep it that way. Also, they wouldn’t tell anyone. Why complicate things at work? It was all supposed to be fun.

But then, in August 2018, the Whitehead adopted a new Consensual Sexual and Romantic Relationships Policy, which stated that lab heads couldn’t have a “consensual or sexual relationship” with any coworkers. “Not going to H.R. right then was my critical mistake,” Sabatini told me.

At the time, Sabatini didn’t think it mattered much. Things were fizzling. He still cared for Knouse, and they were still close—he had a cancer scare in late 2018, and when he found out he wasn’t dying, she was one of the few people he texted. But he was getting involved with another woman, a microbiologist in Germany.

Knouse didn’t want to let go. In January 2020 she texted, in part: “I get anxious when I don’t hear back from you and then I see you post stuff on Twitter and it provides an admittedly small and silly but still another bit of evidence to this growing feeling that you don't care about me in the way that I care about you.” He wrote back: “I am sorry but you are being crazy.” In another text, Knouse admitted feeling “stung.” She added: “I think it’s worth thinking about whether you want someone who matches your passion, intellect, and ambition.” He wrote back: “I have to explore this.” (Knouse declined to talk with me. This account is based on interviews with Sabatini, more than a dozen colleagues of both Sabatini and Knouse, legal filings, text messages, emails, and documents obtained exclusively by Common Sense.)

For a few months, Knouse broke off communication with him. Then Covid hit. In April 2020, she reached out via text. She made a dorky joke about the pandemic and enemas. They griped about Covid safety protocols. She invited him and his son to her family’s beach house on Cape Cod for some “low density private beach and pool action.” She bought a new red Audi and sent him a picture of it. Her grandmother died, and he told her he was sorry for her loss, and they went back and forth about her traveling to Pennsylvania for the funeral. “A big hug,” he texted her, “and a safe travels!”

Then, in late summer or early fall—when the whole country was gripped by protests and riots, and everyone was apologizing and reckoning—something changed.

In October 2020, Knouse texted her friends that she was “unpack[ing] a ton of suppressed abuse and trauma from an obvious local source”—an apparent reference to Sabatini. Knouse’s fellowship at the Whitehead was ending, and she didn’t apply for any faculty jobs there. When the new director, Ruth Lehmann, called Knouse to ask why, Knouse complained for the first time of being “harassed.”

In November, Knouse warned her friend—an incoming Whitehead fellow—to “squeeze out as much advice as possible before your mentor is Weinstein’ed out of science.”

In December, at Lehmann’s behest, the consulting firm Jones Diversity sent the Whitehead employees a survey “based in part on Dr. Knouse’s false complaint about Dr. Sabatini,” according to a complaint later brought by Sabatini. All participants were anonymous. Five or so of the nearly 40 employees in Sabatini’s lab took part.

The next month, two former Sabatini lab members lodged complaints to H.R.—the first complaints against him in his 24-year tenure—about “bro culture” in the lab.

This prompted the Whitehead to hire the law firm Hinckley, Allen & Snyder to conduct an investigation on “gender bias and/or inequities and a retaliatory leadership in the Sabatini lab.” The Whitehead never told Sabatini what he was accused of. Former lab members told me their co-workers were sobbing when they came out of meetings with the lawyers, saying that the lawyers had put words in their mouths. “They had a very strong agenda,” one of them told me.

In retrospect, it was already over for this once-in-a-generation scientist.

On January 19, 2020, Knouse texted Sabatini: “The only certainty in your life, now and forever, is that you love your son and your lab more than anything else. Be careful not to abandon them despite your current mental state. Take care.”

A little more than a year-and-a-half later, on August 13, 2021, the lawyers finished their 248-page report.

A few days after that, Sabatini was at home when he got the email with the Whitehead report attached to it. Soon after, an invitation for a short meeting with Lehmann appeared on his calendar. She had never bothered to meet one-on-one with the most famous person on her payroll, and he suspected what was up. He called his lawyers immediately, and they confirmed that he was about to be fired.

In the 24 hours after the report came out, Sabatini’s life fell apart. MIT put him on administrative leave. The Howard Hughes Medical Institute, another prestigious non-profit that funds biomedical research and was paying Sabatini’s salary, fired him. He resigned from the Whitehead, and eventually MIT, at the advice of his lawyers who thought it would help him secure his next job. (“I one hundred percent regret that,” Sabatini told me).

Soon, the biotech startups he’d helped found— Navitor Pharmaceuticals, KSQ and Raze Therapeutics—started severing their relationships with him. Sabatini was axed from professorships, fellowships, and professional societies. Awards and grants were pulled. His income disappeared.

On August 20, Lehmann officially cut ties with Sabatini in an email sent to the whole institute. That was leaked to the Boston Globe within minutes; the news was circulating on Twitter within hours.

“I lost everything. My whole life imploded,” Sabatini said. “I became a shell of what I was.”

Sabatini stopped sleeping at home so he didn’t have to hear the FedEx envelopes plopping down on his doormat—invariably another letter from another institution cutting ties with him. He toggled between his brother’s home—Bernardo Sabatini, a professor of neurobiology, runs his own lab at Harvard Medical School—and his ex-wife’s. He stopped eating and sleeping. He went on unemployment and dropped 35 pounds in three months. He cried a lot, and his hair was falling out. A friend of Sabatini told me he sent Sabatini articles about mTOR to keep him preoccupied, and sleeping pills to help him crash at night. Nothing worked.

Another friend, a fellow scientist, explained: “I love my science, but I also have other interests. David isn’t like that. Science is his one and only.”

So what exactly had those 248 pages said? What had David Sabatini been found guilty of that merited this kind of punishment? Chiefly, failing to disclose his consensual relationship with Knouse. On top of that, the report found that Sabatini, in his day-to-day administration of the lab, violated the Whitehead’s Anti-Harassment Policy, since his “behavior created a sexualized undercurrent in the lab.” Sabatini’s relationship with Knouse exacerbated things, given his “indirect influence” over her, which violated the Anti-Harassment Policy and ran afoul of the “spirit” if not the letter of another of the institute's policies.

True, he didn’t supervise Knouse. He didn’t work directly with her. He never threatened her or proposed a quid pro quo. And he certainly didn’t have the power to fire her. But, according to the report, he had “experience, stature, and age” over her. Knouse’s apparent desire to continue their relationship only served to confirm his influence: “That she felt the need to act ‘fun’ to impress Sabatini underscores how Sabatini’s words and actions profoundly impacted her,” the lawyers wrote.

Nor did the lawyers care for the happy hours and whiskey tastings that Sabatini sometimes hosted in his office, which betrayed his “apparent ‘friendliness’ and general propensity to have ‘fun.’” (Knouse, in her counterclaim, says the events were “drunken,” and “conversations quite frequently veered to the sexual.”)

“While we have not found any evidence that Sabatini discriminates against or fails to support females in his lab, we find that Sabatini’s propensity to praise or gravitate toward those in the lab that mirror his desired personality traits, scientific success, or view of ‘science above all else,’ creates additional obstacles for female lab members,” the report concluded.

This was baffling to everyone I spoke to: Nine of Sabatini’s current and former lab employees, a current faculty member at the Whitehead, and half a dozen top doctors and scientists in Sabatini’s field. Most of them would not speak on the record for fear of being associated with Sabatini and derailing their own careers. “It’s impossible to be honest about this and preserve your own skin,” says a scientist who recently worked under Sabatini.

That trainee called the report’s depiction of the lab an “alternate reality,” and the characterization of Sabatini as lascivious and retaliatory “deeply insane.”

“They have the wrong guy,” a female scientist who knows Sabatini and Knouse told me. A female former trainee told me that the climate in Sabatini’s lab was “one of excellence.” She said that Sabatini could be demanding, but he was never demeaning or unfair. “I try to emulate him in my own lab,” another female former trainee said. A third female trainee said the lab could be informal, but it was hardly a locker room. “It just wasn’t in the air.“

I asked a former technician about the notorious whiskey tastings. “These weren’t keggers,” he said. “‘Bench scientists’ and ‘party’ don’t generally overlap.”

The allegations over the relationship and the ones about the lab’s culture served to reinforce each other; if Sabatini was so ill-advised as to hook up with a younger colleague, surely his bad judgment spilt over into his (extremely well-funded) lab. Making such a claim also appeared to be advantageous to the Whitehead.

For one, it would allow Lehmann to be seen as a no-nonsense leader with zero tolerance for the sexism in science that she saw as a challenge. It would also pacify Knouse, who wanted to see Sabatini fired publicly. “Part of me just wants to organize a protest outside of Whitehead and this would be over in a matter of hours not weeks,” wrote Knouse to a friend during the investigation.

Then, there’s the money.

Until recently, the NIH deterred institutions from firing or even investigating scientists who brought in a lot of NIH money, because that money usually followed the scientists—not the institutions. So for years, universities and other research organizations often turned a blind eye to their superstars’ bad behavior for fear of losing multi-million-dollar grants. To correct this, the NIH amended its policy in June 2020. Moving forward, if principal investigators are accused of “harassment, bullying, retaliation, or hostile working conditions” recipient institutions are obligated to alert the NIH, who would use the information to decide whether or not to reassign the grant. The NIH hoped to end the game of “pass the harasser.”

The Whitehead’s arrangement with NIH is especially lucrative: On top of all the grant money it brings in, the institute also gets a nearly 95 percent “facilities and administrative” or F&A fee, as insiders put it. (Usually, NIH pays organizations 25 to 50 percent.) Every $500,000 Sabatini reeled in was actually worth closer to $1 million to the Whitehead. “Once they decided a priori to fire him, that kind of dictated how the investigation needed to be done in order to keep any NIH money,” said a former trainee. “It would be a perfect kill shot. By doing it the way they did it, they guaranteed he couldn’t be hired, and where’s he going to take the grants if he can’t be hired?”

At least a few of Sabatini’s grants were transferred to Jonathan Weissman, who is currently listed as the principal investigator on “Novel Components of the mTORC1 and mTORC2 Pathways,” and “Cell Growth Signaling in Cancer Development,” and “Regulation of the mTOR Pathway by Nutrients” worth $487,500 and $463,125, and $416,813 respectively.

In October 2021, Sabatini filed a lawsuit against Knouse, Lehmann, and the Whitehead. He claimed that Knouse had “fabricated claims” that he had sexually harassed her, and that the Whitehead’s investigation was a sham. A few weeks later, Knouse filed a counterclaim that accused Sabatini, among other things, of sexual “grooming.”

I spoke with Ellen Zucker, Knouse’s attorney, for nearly an hour, but she insisted on not saying anything on the record. Knouse declined to comment. So did Lehmann, the Whitehead’s director.

At a meeting after Sabatini’s case was filed, on November 3, 2021 Lehmann, Kay Hodge, the Whitehead’s attorney, and the head of HR informed those left in the lab that NIH rules barred those who had worked under Sabatini from having any contact with him at all. When some of them objected—Sabatini, at that point, was just a guy living in Boston—a scientist who was there recalled Hodge warning them: “You wouldn’t want to jeopardize your future eligibility for NIH funding.” There was a chill in the room. “That’s a death sentence,” the scientist said.

The whole thing was baffling to those who know Sabatini. “It’s as if the best player in the NFL got cut because he said something politically incorrect on social media,” Peter Attia, a medical expert on longevity and a close friend of Sabatini, told me. “In my opinion, he’s one of the top five scientists of his generation in my area,” said Ben Neel, who runs NYU’s cancer center. I asked a former trainee what she made of Sabatini’s reputation. “You don’t have to ask me, just look at his PubMed,” she said, referring to his copious list of published findings.

In late 2021, six months after he resigned, Dafna Bar-Sagi, the Vice Dean of Science at NYU Langone Health, which comprises New York University’s medical school and several hospitals, called Sabatini. He was an old friend. She knew about everything that had happened, and she wanted to check in on him. He lamented that no one would ever hire him again. Bar-Sagi said he was being silly. Of course, she said, someone somewhere would give him a job. He was the famous David Sabatini. Finally, he asked her point blank, Would she?

On a bright, breezy Wednesday morning in late April on the corner of 30th Street and First Avenue, in the shadow of the huge, glass buildings that make up part of NYU Langone Health, the protesters were chanting, “Whose school? Our school!” and someone was screaming, “Safety!” They were angry, incredulous—many of the postdocs and researchers and faculty were waving posters that said things like, “WTF NYU” and “No to Sabatini!” They could not believe that this was going to happen.

They hadn’t read the lawyers’ report, but they had read the internet, and they didn’t like what they’d read. NYU was about to hire a “serial sexual harasser,” as one of the demonstrators put it, trading grant dollars for their trainees’ “safety.” So where should a superstar researcher do his research? Where does the guy who’s going to help cure cancer go? “Uhhh, Prison?” Madeleine Sutherland, a postdoc, told me.

The demonstration was sparked by an article in Science magazine that reported that NYU higher-ups and Sabatini had been in talks for several months. Nothing was set in stone. There was no formal offer on the table.

“The work was exhaustive to vet Sabatini,” Ken Langone, the billionaire philanthropist and chair of the Board of Trustees of the NYU Langone Medical Center tells me. “If there was anything untoward about this man’s behavior, we would not have touched him with a ten foot pole.”

“David is one of the greatest scientists of our century,” Bar-Sagi told me. Hoping to clear the way for Sabatini, and wary of not appearing insensitive to the Whitehead report’s findings, NYU was conducting its own investigation—“at the risk,” Bar-Sagi said, “of depriving society of the benefit of having someone like this continuing their career and making really meaningful discoveries that can affect human health for generations.”

NYU shared the Whitehead report with several outside lawyers, who all concluded that Sabatini was not afforded due process.

But the internal pressure, the bad press, and the tweets from within and without NYU were becoming too much. Postdocs at the medical school were threatening to retract papers. Faculty had been ostracized for not publicly blasting Sabatini. Andrew Hamilton, NYU’s president, sent a letter “strongly advising” that the medical school not go through with hiring Sabatini. “Faculty at the University and elsewhere have been told not to work with us. And also, speakers are being told not to come here,” an NYU administrator texted a colleague.

On May 3, NYU announced: “After careful and thorough consideration that included the perspectives of many stakeholders, both Dr. David Sabatini and NYU Grossman School of Medicine have reached the conclusion that it will not be possible for him to become a member of our faculty.”

“If people are close minded to the idea that there can be a consensual relationship between two adults, I’m afraid we can’t make any traction,” said Grossman, the dean of NYU Medical School. Neel, who would’ve become the second most famous cancer researcher at NYU had Sabatini been hired, tells me, “I find it all deeply disappointing and frightening.”

As if all this weren’t enough, the NIH started making noise. They’d gotten several anonymous complaints about Bar-Sagi. She has never had any complaint about her in her entire career. Her apparent crime appears to have been initiating the conversation with Sabatini.

Last week, NIH officials sent NYU a letter questioning Bar-Sagi’s ability to provide a safe environment for trainees. “It’s a pretty interesting message,” said Grossman. NIH also informed the university that it was auditing Bar-Sagi’s involvement in over $500 million in grant money that it had awarded to NYU. Most of that, $470 million, is for a study on long Covid.


Sabatini told me has a recurring nightmare: He’s trapped in the Whitehead building when he discovers he’s not allowed to be there. He frantically tries to get to an exit, but he never makes it out. In real life, he has no idea what became of his lab, or the millions of dollars of equipment and reagents there, or the half-finished experiments including projects on neurodegeneration and ovarian cancer. Most everyone has left.

Sabatini spends his days shuffling around, watching Netflix, caring for his 11-year-old son and taking calls from lawyers. He got some job offers, from China, Russia, and the United Arab Emirates—places that don’t care about the things he’s accused of. Knouse is now an assistant professor of biology at MIT, and she runs her own lab at the Koch Institute for Integrative Cancer Research, named after the late MIT alum and conservative mega-donor David H. Koch following a $100 million gift.

One wonders whether the very rich people shoveling piles of money into these institutions have any idea about what’s going on within them.

At the protest, I met Tulsi Patel, a postdoc at Columbia. Patel tells me about a new bullying policy at Columbia, which she helped to write, to deal with “power-based harassment” that doesn’t fall into the already illegal categories like sex and race-based harassment. “We recommended calling it the Office of Conflict Resolution, just to make it sound like a chill thing, like it’s about resolving conflicts,” Patel said. The provost is reviewing the proposal.

Grossman, the dean of NYU’s medical school, talks a lot about, “listening to our community” and “believing in the process,” but the protestors don’t really care about any of that. They’re playing a different game. They know that if they make enough noise, if they claim enough “harm,” NYU— or any other school that brands itself as inclusive or progressive—will give in. And even if Sabatini were hired, no one would have worked with him. It would have been social suicide to.

Many of the researchers and postdocs I spoke to pointed out that, as scientists, it’s essential to look carefully at all the evidence and to leave no stone unturned. The way the Whitehead and MIT conducted their investigation into David Sabatini runs counter, they say, to the scientific method itself. It also sends a clear message: That ground-breaking research takes a backseat to an ideal of social purity, and that subjective truth is the only truth that matters.

“In my lab, there were two criteria we always strived toward; that the discovery is fundamentally true, which means proving it in many different ways, and that it’s new,” Sabatini said. “Everyone talks about your truth, and my truth. Physically, chemically, there’s only one truth.”

Thursday, June 09, 2022

How San Francisco Became A Failed City

 Here is a link to an article by Nellie Bowles in The Atlantic. It is a worthwhile read that provides perspective about the relation between policies and consequences.

Here are some excerpts - but read the article.

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A couple of years ago, one of my friends saw a man staggering down the street, bleeding. She recognized him as someone who regularly slept outside in the neighborhood, and called 911. Paramedics and police arrived and began treating him, but members of a homeless advocacy group noticed and intervened. They told the man that he didn’t have to get into the ambulance, that he had the right to refuse treatment. So that’s what he did. The paramedics left; the activists left. The man sat on the sidewalk alone, still bleeding. A few months later, he died about a block away.

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If you’re going to die on the street, San Francisco is not a bad place to do it. The fog keeps things temperate. There’s nowhere in the world with more beautiful views. City workers and volunteers bring you food and blankets, needles and tents. Doctors come to see how the fentanyl is progressing, and to make sure the rest of you is all right as you go.

In February 2021, at a corner in the lovely Japantown neighborhood, just a few feet from a house that would soon sell for $4.8 million, a 37-year-old homeless man named Dustin Walker died by the side of the road. His body lay there for at least 11 hours. He wore blue shorts and even in death clutched his backpack.

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Of course, you can’t blame the plague of meth and opioids on my hometown. Fentanyl is a national catastrophe. But people addicted to drugs come from all over the country in part for the services San Francisco provides. In addition to the supervised drug-use facility in the plaza, San Francisco has a specially sanctioned and city-maintained slum a block from City Hall, where food, medical care, and counseling are free, and every tent costs taxpayers roughly $60,000 a year. People addicted to fentanyl come, too, because buying and doing drugs here is so easy. In 2014, Proposition 47, a state law, downgraded drug possession from a felony to a misdemeanor, and one that Boudin said he wouldn’t devote resources to prosecuting.

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In 2019, someone posted a picture in a Facebook group called B.A.R.T. Rants & Raves, where people complain about the state of the regional transportation system. The photo was of a young man, slumped over on a train. People were chiming in about how gross the city was.

A woman named Jacqui Berlinn wrote in the comments, simply: “That’s my son.”

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A 2020 tweet from the Tenderloin police station captured the frustration of the rank and file: “Tonight, for the fifteenth (15th) time in 18 months, and the 3rd time in 20 days, we are booking the same suspect at county jail for felony motor vehicle theft.”

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Consider the story of the flower farm at 770 Woolsey Street. It slopes down 2.2 acres in the sunny southern end of the city and is filled with run-down greenhouses, the glass long shattered—a chaos of birds and wild roses. For five years, advocates fought a developer who was trying to put 63 units on that bucolic space. They wanted to sell flowers there and grow vegetables for the neighborhood—a kind of banjo-and-beehives utopian fantasy. The thing they didn’t want—at least not there, not on that pretty hill—was a big housing development. Who wants to argue against them? In San Francisco the word developer is basically a slur, close to calling someone a Republican. What kind of monster wants to bulldoze wild roses?

Decades of progressive governance in San Francisco yielded a thicket of regulations—safety reviews, environmental reviews, historical reviews, sunlight-obstruction reviews—that empower residents to essentially paralyze development. It costs only $682 to file for a discretionary review that can hold up a construction project for years, and if you’re an established club that’s been around for at least two years, it’s free. Plans for one 19-unit-development geared toward the middle class were halted this year because, among other issues raised by the neighbors, the building would have increased overall shadow coverage on Dolores Park by 0.001 percent.



Wednesday, June 08, 2022

More on Progressive - Democrat behavior.

 Here is Jonathan Turley with an update on academia.

If you are wondering why so many young people are behaving inappropriately and advocate for things that will destroy our freedom - look no further than academia. As the Communists have known for a long time, indoctrination works.

JT is on target.

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Last week, many of us initially celebrated the reinstatement of the Center for the Constitution Director Ilya Shapiro as a belated but important victory for free speech and academic freedom. Then we all read the rationale from Law Dean William Treanor, who adopted a technicality that not only avoided a full endorsement of Shapiro’s rights but left a menacing uncertainty as to his (and any other conservative’s) future protections at Georgetown University Law School. Shapiro has elected to leave Georgetown to take a position with the Manhattan Institute given the lack of support for his right to speak freely at the law school. Unfortunately, most schools want to avoid litigation (and the controversy) over terminating dissenting faculty. The preference is to make life on faculties so hostile or intolerable that faculty will simply resign.

Shapiro is under fire for his opposition to the pledge by President Joe Biden to limit consideration for the next Supreme Court nominee to a black female. Shapiro sent out a horrendously badly worded tweet that supported a liberal Indian-American jurist as opposed to a “lesser black woman.” He later removed the tweet and repeatedly apologized. He explained that he was referring to lesser qualifications vis-a-vis his preferred nominee, Sri Srinivasan, a liberal judge on the D.C. Circuit.

Georgetown faculty has supported the effort to fire Shapiro, including my former colleague Paul Butler who wrote a condemning op-ed in the Washington Post. Some faculty insisted that Shapiro is a raving racist who actually believes that, while supporting other minorities for the Court, African American women are unqualified as a group from sitting on the Court. That has been presented as more plausible than a poorly worded tweet.

Many of us have encouraged Georgetown to resist such calls in support of free speech and academic freedom protections. However, the school kept Shapiro suspended for months and offered little public support for his rights. As we have seen at other schools, those faculty who were not actively seeking his termination were conspicuously silent over his rights and treatment.

Then came the reinstatement. As Shapiro noted in his resignation letter, Dean Treanor “cleared me on a jurisdictional technicality, but the IDEAA Report—and your own statements to the Law Center community—implicitly repealed Georgetown’s vaunted Speech and Expression Policy and set me up for discipline the next time I transgress progressive orthodoxy.” Indeed, it is not clear why this took months if the law school is saying that he was not subject to the school’s standards at the time of his tweet.

The Dean, however, added the menacing statement that if Shapiro “were to make another, similar or more serious remark as a Georgetown employee, a hostile environment based on race, gender, and sex likely would be created.”

This was not the response given at the university to an earlier professor who suggested castrating Republicans or other racially or politically controversial comments from faculty.We recently discussed the different treatment given liberal and conservative speakers at Boston University after students passed a resolution calling a conservative speaker a danger to their safety. They further declared that “intentionally incendiary speech and rhetoric” is unprotected by free speech principles. Yet, Boston University Professor Saida Grundy the same week made incendiary comments to justify criminal acts, including looting, as racial justice. Grundy has a history of racial statements against white students and faculty. As I noted, both speakers should be protected by the same free speech values.

The support enjoyed by faculty on the far left is in sharp contrast to the treatment given faculty with moderate, conservative or libertarian views. Anyone who raises such dissenting views is immediately set upon by a mob demanding their investigation or termination. This includes blocking academics from speaking on campuses like a recent Classics professor due to their political views. Conservatives and libertarians understand that they have no cushion or protection in any controversy, even if it involves a single, later deleted tweet.

One such campaign led to a truly tragic outcome with criminology professor Mike Adams at the University of North Carolina (Wilmington). Adams was a conservative faculty member with controversial writings who had to go to court to stop prior efforts to remove him. He then tweeted a condemnation of North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper for his pandemic rules, tweeting that he had dined with six men at a six-seat table and “felt like a free man who was not living in the slave state of North Carolina” before adding: “Massa Cooper, let my people go.” It was a stupid and offensive tweet. However, we have seen extreme comments on the left — including calls to gas or kill or torture conservatives — be tolerated or even celebrated at universities.

Celebrities, faculty and students demanded that Adams be fired. After weeks of public pummeling, Adams relented and took a settlement to resign. He then killed himself a few days before his final day as a professor.

Like many schools, Georgetown cannot continue the pretense of protecting free speech and academic freedom when it is actively creating a hostile workplace for those with conservative, libertarian or dissenting views. The double standard is evident in schools across the country. Liberal faculty can expect full-throated and unqualified support for their free speech while conservatives understand that they have no margin for controversy or error.

Do black Americas stand to lose the most with more gun control?

 Here is Jason Riley at the Wall Street Journal on black americans and guns.

JR is on target.

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“The issue we face is one of conscience and common sense.” So said Joe Biden last week in a prime-time plea for more Second Amendment restrictions. The president is right on both counts, just not in the way that he and other gun-control enthusiasts imagine.

Voters have noticed that cities where shootings occur almost daily also have some of the strictest gun laws. Using common sense, they’ve concluded that more gun-control legislation probably isn’t the solution because criminals by definition don’t respect laws. Many of the same people likewise find it unconscionable that elected officials would make it more difficult for law-abiding residents of high-crime neighborhoods to arm themselves for protection.

Someone might remind Mr. Biden that the past two landmark Supreme Court rulings on gun control were fueled by black plaintiffs who simply wanted to defend their homes and their families. Moreover, they hailed from cities controlled by liberals who have done an extraordinarily bad job of protecting low-income minorities from criminals. In a 2008 case, District of Columbia v. Heller, the court affirmed that the right to bear arms is an individual right and that you don’t need to be part of a militia to exercise it. One of the initial plaintiffs was Shelly Parker, a black computer-software designer who decided to challenge the district’s handgun ban in court after a 7-foot-tall neighborhood drug dealer tried to break into her home one evening and threatened to kill her. “What I want is simply to be able to own a handgun in my home, in the confines of the walls of my home—nothing else,” she told National Public Radio.

Two years later, in McDonald v. Chicago, the high court expanded on Heller. The lead plaintiff was Otis McDonald, a black Chicago retiree who wanted to own a handgun for protection from the gangs that terrorized his low-income neighborhood. Ruling in his favor, the court said that the Second Amendment applies with equal force to federal, state and local governments alike. When McDonald died in 2014, the Chicago Tribune obituary described him as “the man who brought down Chicago’s gun ban.”

It’s well known that gun sales have surged in recent years, but less well known is that blacks have led the trend. Retailers in an online survey conducted by the National Shooting Sports Foundation, a trade group, reported that they sold 58% more guns to black customers in the first half of 2020 than a year earlier, the highest increase for any ethnic group. Personal safety tops the list of why people decide to buy a firearm. In a 2021 Gallup survey, 88% of respondents said they own a gun “for protection against crime,” which is up from 67% in 2005.

Social conditions have convinced more Americans that they need a gun, yet the political left has spent little time reassessing woke policies that lead to such thinking. Violent crime has been rising. Homicides in major cities have reached levels not seen in three decades. Meanwhile, liberal policy makers treat criminals like victims and police officers like criminals. Antigun police units tasked with keeping illegal weapons off the streets have been disbanded. Felonies have been downgraded to misdemeanors, and misdemeanors go unpunished, which only emboldens miscreants. Low-income minorities feel the brunt of these so-called reforms because they are by far the most likely crime targets.

The same “defund the police” progressives who have spent most of the past decade undermining the ability of law enforcement to combat crime are now using sensational but statistically rare mass-shooting tragedies as a pretense for curtailing the ability of people in vulnerable communities to defend themselves. The president wants to ban “assault weapons,” raise the purchase age to 21, and expand background checks. There’s no evidence that any of this will address the day-in-day-out gun violence that has driven so many Americans to become first-time gun owners.

The question is whether more restrictions on ordinary Americans in a nation that already has more guns than people will reduce the number of lives lost. Most mass shooters in recent decades have been over 21. The assailants in Buffalo, N.Y., and Uvalde, Texas, passed background checks and purchased their weapons legally. And from 1994 to 2004, we had a federal assault-weapons ban in place. The reality is that most gun crimes don’t involve such weapons, and a RAND Corp. assessment of these efforts found “inconclusive evidence for the effect of assault weapon bans on mass shootings.”

The source of the problem is the failure or inability of the government to protect us. Common sense dictates that we do what is necessary to protect ourselves in the meantime. Only a fool or an ideologue could believe that the best response to people who commit crimes with guns is launching a holy war against people who respect gun laws.

Tuesday, June 07, 2022

Perspective on Left-Right equivalence

 Here is Ilya Shapiro on his experience at Georgetown University Law School.

A reasonable hypothesis is that the current Woke and Cancel culture is largely a result of indoctrination of students by their teachers.

Here is Shapiro's Wall Street Journal article.

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After a four-month investigation into a tweet, the Georgetown University Law Center reinstated me last Thursday. But after full consideration of the report I received later that afternoon from the Office of Institutional Diversity, Equity and Affirmative Action, or IDEAA, and on consultation with counsel and trusted advisers, I concluded that remaining in my job was untenable.

Dean William Treanor cleared me on the technicality that I wasn’t an employee when I tweeted, but the IDEAA implicitly repealed Georgetown’s Speech and Expression Policy and set me up for discipline the next time I transgress progressive orthodoxy. Instead of participating in that slow-motion firing, I’m resigning.

IDEAA speciously found that my tweet criticizing President Biden for limiting his Supreme Court pool by race and sex required “appropriate corrective measures” to address my “objectively offensive comments and to prevent the recurrence of offensive conduct based on race, gender, and sex.” Mr. Treanor reiterated these concerns in a June 2 statement, further noting the “harmful” nature of my tweets.

But IDEAA makes clear there is nothing objective about its standard: “The University’s anti-harassment policy does not require that a respondent intend to denigrate,” the report says. “Instead, the Policy requires consideration of the ‘purpose or effect’ of a respondent’s conduct.” That people were offended, or claim to have been, is enough for me to have broken the rules.

IDEAA asserts that if I “were to make another, similar or more serious remark as a Georgetown employee, a hostile environment based on race, gender, and sex likely would be created.” All sorts of comments that someone could find offensive would subject me to disciplinary action. Consider the following hypotheticals:

• I laud Supreme Court decisions that overrule Roe v. Wade and protect the right to carry arms. An activist claims that my comments “deny women’s humanity” and make her feel “unsafe” and “directly threatened with physical violence.”

• After I meet with students concerned about my ability to treat everyone fairly, as Mr. Treanor asked me to do, one attendee files a complaint calling me “disingenuous” and the “embodiment of white supremacy.”

• When the Supreme Court hears the Harvard and University of North Carolina affirmative-action cases this fall, I opine that the Constitution bans racial preferences. Hundreds of Georgetown stakeholders sign a letter asserting that my comments “are antithetical to the work that we do here every day to build inclusion, belonging, and respect for diversity” (borrowing the language from Mr. Treanor’s statements of Jan. 31 and June 2).

• In a class I’m teaching, a student feels uncomfortable with his assigned position in a mock oral argument in 303 Creative v. Elenis, a case that considers whether a designer can be compelled to create a website for a same-sex wedding. “To argue that someone can deny service to members of the LGBTQIA+ community is to treat our brothers and sisters as second-class citizens, and I will not participate in Shapiro’s denigrating charade,” he writes on the student listserv.

I could go on, but you get the idea. It is the Georgetown administrators who have created a hostile work environment for me.

Fundamentally, what Mr. Treanor has done—what he’s allowed IDEAA to do—is repeal the Speech and Expression Policy that he claims to hold dear. The freedom to speak is no freedom at all if it makes an exception for speech someone finds offensive or counter to some nebulous conception of equity.

Georgetown’s treatment of me shows how the university applies even these self-contradicting “principles” inconsistently depending on ideology. Contrast my case with these recent examples:

• In 2018, Prof. Carol Christine Fair of the School of Foreign Service tweeted during Justice Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation process: “Look at this chorus of entitled white men justifying a serial rapist’s arrogated entitlement. All of them deserve miserable deaths while feminists laugh as they take their last gasps. Bonus: we castrate their corpses and feed them to swine? Yes.” Georgetown held this to be protected speech.

• In 2020, Prof. Heidi Feldman of the Law Center tweeted that “law professors and law school deans” should “not support applications from our students to clerk for” judges appointed by President Trump. “To work for such a judge,” Ms. Feldman continued, “indelibly marks a lawyer as lacking in the character and judgment necessary for the practice of law.” These comments could threaten the careers of all conservative and libertarian students, or anyone who clerks for duly confirmed but disfavored judges. But Georgetown took no action.

• In April of this year—months after my tweet—Ms. Feldman tweeted: “We have only one political party in this country, the Democrats. The other group is a combination of a cult and an insurrection-supporting crime syndicate.” She went on: “The only ethically and politically responsible stance to take toward the Republican ‘party’ is to consistently point out that it is no longer a legitimate participant in U.S. constitutional democracy.” Unlike me, Ms. Feldman teaches first-year law students in mandatory courses. This pattern of remarks created a hostile educational environment for Republican students—a protected class under District of Columbia antidiscrimination law. The tweets were quietly deleted without apology or disciplinary action.

• Last month, law professor Josh Chafetz tweeted: “The ‘protest at the Supreme Court, not at the justices’ houses’ line would be more persuasive if the Court hadn’t this week erected fencing to prevent protesters from coming anywhere near it.” He added, “When the mob is right, some (but not all!) more aggressive tactics are justified.” Later, he invited “folks” to “snitch tag @GeorgetownLaw” and taunted that the school was “not going to fire me over a tweet you don’t like.”

Mr. Chafetz was surely right about the last point. Apparently it’s free speech for thee, not for me.

It’s all well and good to adopt strong free-speech policies, but it’s not enough if university administrators aren’t willing to stand up to those who demand censorship. And the problem isn’t limited to cowardly administrators. Proliferating IDEAA-style offices enforce an orthodoxy that stifles intellectual diversity, undermines equal opportunity, and excludes dissenting voices. Even the dean of an elite law school bucks these bureaucrats at his peril.

What Georgetown subjected me to, what it would be subjecting me to if I stayed, is a heckler’s veto that leads to a Star Chamber. “Live not by lies,” warned Aleksander Solzhenitsyn. “Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”

I won’t live this way.

Sunday, June 05, 2022

Breaking down Mass Public Shooting data from 1998 through May 2022: Info on weapons used; gun-free zones; racial, age, and gender demographics

 From John Lott at the Crime Prevention Research Center.

Here is the link.

This article exposes the many of the lies you have heard from the media, politicians, and anti-gunners.

Here are some excerpts.

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The Excel file with detailed information on the 88 mass public shootings from 1998 through May 15, 2022 is available here. With all the discussion about having another assault weapon ban, only 14% of mass public shootings are done solely with any type of rifle. Twenty-nine percent involve only a rifle or a rifle in combination with a handgun and/or a shotgun. Among the other findings, about 9 in 10 of the attacks are in gun-free zones (though over the longer period from 1950 94% of the attacks are in gun-free zones), half of the shooters are over age 30 and over 80 percent are at least 21 years of age. 97% are male and 55% are white. Still, for many, it might be surprising that such a large percentage of these attackers are minorities and that most are much older than K-12 or college-age shooters. Earlier work that we had done showed that the vast majority of these killers have no religious or political views. 48% of the mass public shooters were seeing mental health care professionals prior to their attacks.

While the majority of mass public shooters are white, they are much less than their share of the US population. Including people of Middle Eastern descent, about 76 percent of Americans were white over this period, but 63% of the mass public shooters were white (just 55% are white if you exclude people of Middle Eastern descent). About 3.7 million are Arab Americans and 6.5 million are Jewish Americans, so while 8% of shooters are of Middle Eastern Arab descent, they make up just over 1% of the US population.

The Progressives at the Department of Justice at work – how to incentivize violence

 Jonathan Turley on his blog.

People respond to consequences - even crazy people. Lowering the "price" of violent behavior increases it. JT discusses an example.

The uneven "justice" provided by the DOJ is also noteworthy.

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We previously discussed the cases of attorneys Colinford Mattis and Urooj Rahman, who were accused of throwing a Molotov cocktail into an occupied police vehicle in New York. They were facing domestic terrorism charges and the possibility of 30 years in jail. This week, the Biden Administration agreed to a massive reduction of the charges in a plea agreement that will likely result only in a couple years of jail time. What is particularly bizarre is that the plea agreement reduces an earlier plea agreement for a more serious offense.

The plea deal by the Justice Department is a breathtaking reduction in the charges and expected sentencing of the two lawyers.

Earlier, some of us were surprised that U.S. District Judge Margo Brodie upheld the $250,000 bail determination of U.S. Magistrate Judge Steven Gold. Prosecutors presented evidence that the two attorneys were trying to distribute Molotov cocktails and suggested that Mattis did not appear rational. The United States Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit reversed Judge Brodie and the two attorneys were sent back to jail. (Rahman’s bail was paid for by friend and fellow attorney Salmah Rizvi, who served in the Defense Department and State Department during the Obama administration).

Notably, Rahman and Mattis pleaded guilty last year to one count of possessing and making an explosive device, which carries a maximum sentence of 10 years in prison. Now, however, they will be allowed to withdraw the earlier plea and instead plead guilty to conspiring to assemble the Molotov cocktail and damage the New York Police Department patrol car. That is a nosebleed of a drop in the severity and punishment for this violent attack.

It is a sharp contrast to the harsh position taken by the Biden Justice Department on many of those accused of rioting on January 6th. Attorney General Merrick Garland cited the threat to police officers in pledging an unprecedented effort to charge and convict those involved “on any level” in the riot.

Conspiring to assemble the Molotov cocktail and damage the New York Police Department patrol car does not quite capture what these two attorneys did during the violent riot in New York. Rahman was caught on video throwing the firebomb and then fleeing the scene. Colinford Mattis was accused of having a store of firebombs in his vehicle and was videotaped as he attempted to hand them out to other rioters to fuel further violence. Rahman later was unapologetic and declared to reporters that “the only way they hear us is through violence.”

That does not seem the type of the suspects who would ordinarily garner deep sympathy from prosecutors. Yet, the Biden Administration walked back the charges, unraveled the earlier plea to a lesser offense, and told that court that the earlier charges would have resulted in “excessive sentencing” for the attorneys. Instead, they are supporting a maximum sentence of five years with a recommendation of between 18 to 24 months imprisonment.

Attorney General Garland just last month honored law enforcement killed in the line of duty. This plea agreement is likely to infuriate many of those families given strength of the case and the severity of the conduct. These two attorneys were participating in an effort that could have burned officers alive as a form of protest. They will now be given sentences closer to tax fraud than terrorism.

As previously discussed, Mattis was a member of the Corporate Group at Pryor Cashman when he was arrested. Mattis graduated from New York University School of Law in 2016 and received his bachelor’s degree from Princeton University. He was also previously employed as an associate at Holland & Knight. Rahman was just admitted to the New York bar in June 2019 after graduating from Fordham University School of Law.

Both lawyers will be permanently disbarred and will have to pay restitution to the city of New York.

Friday, June 03, 2022

How a Botched Study Fooled the World About the U.S. Share of Mass Public Shootings

 John Lott shows why a widely quoted study by Adam Lankford comparing mass public shootings in the US to elsewhere was botched.

Given the history cited in Lott's paper it is difficult to conclude that Lankford errors too grevious and too frequent to be due to other than dishonesty.

Here is the link to Lott's paper.

Flawed data and statistics are a frequent occurrence in what you see from the media and gun control groups - and even from many academics. Lott is an exception.

Here are some excerpts.

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Executive Summary

A paper on mass public shootings by Adam Lankford (2016) has received massive national and international media attention, getting coverage in the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, plus hundreds of other news outlets spanning at least 35 different countries. Lankford’s claim was that over the 47 years from 1966 to 2012, an enormous amount of the world’s mass public shooters -- 31% -- occurred in the United States. Lankford attributed this to America’s gun ownership.

Lankford claims to have “complete” data on such shooters in 171 countries. However, because he has neither identified the cases nor their location nor even a complete description on how he put the cases together, it is impossible to replicate his findings.

It is particularly important that Lankford share his data because of the extreme difficulty in finding mass shooting cases in remote parts of the world going back to 1966. Lack of media coverage could easily lead to under-counting of foreign mass shootings, which would falsely lead to the conclusion that the U.S. has such a large share.

Lankford’s study reported that from 1966 to 2012, there were 90 public mass shooters in the United States and 202 in the rest of world. We find that Lankford’s data represent a gross undercount of foreign attacks. Our list contains 1,448 attacks and at least 3,081 shooters outside the United States over just the last 15 years of the period that Lankford examined. We find at least fifteen times more mass public shooters than Lankford in less than a third the number of years.

Coding these events sometimes involves subjectivity. But even when we use coding choices that are most charitable to Lankford, his 31 percent estimate of the US’s share of world mass public shooters is cut by over 95 percent. By our count, the US makes up less than 1.43% of the mass public shooters, 2.11% of their murders, and 2.88% of their attacks. All these are much less than the US’s 4.6% share of the world population. Attacks in the US are not only less frequent than other countries, they are also much less deadly on average.

Given the massive U.S. and international media attention Lankford’s work has received, his unwillingness to provide even the most basic information to other researchers raises real concerns about Lankford’s motives.

“I say this every time we’ve got one of these mass shootings: This just doesn’t happen in other countries.” –Obama, news conference at COP21 climate conference in Paris, Dec. 1, 2015

“The one thing we do know is that we have a pattern now of mass shootings in this country that has no parallel anywhere else in the world.” –President Obama, interview that aired on CBS Evening News, Dec. 2, 2015

“You don’t see murder on this kind of scale, with this kind of frequency, in any other advanced nation on Earth.” – President Obama, speech at U.S. Conference of Mayors, June 19, 2015

Introduction

To justify the claims in these and other similar quotes, President Obama’s administration cited a then unpublished paper by criminologist Adam Lankford. The study received coverage in hundreds of news stories, with international news coverage in at least 35 different countries. Purporting to cover all mass public shootings around the world from 1966 to 2012, Lankford claimed that the United States had 31% of public mass shooters despite having less than 5% of the world population.

Major media outlets gave Lankford's claims uncritical coverage. Headlines accepted his findings as fact.

—The Wall Street Journal: “U.S. Leads World in Mass Shootings.”

—The Wall Street Journal (subheading): “U.S. produces more mass shootings than other countries.”

—The Los Angeles Times: “Why the U.S. is No. 1—in mass shootings.”

—Time magazine: “Why the US has 31% of the World’s Mass Shootings.”

— Newsweek magazine: “Study Sees Mass Shootings as ‘Exceptionally American Problem’.”

—Washington Post: “American exceptionalism and the ‘exceptionally American’ problem of mass shootings.”

—CNN: “Why the U.S. has the most mass shootings.”

— Sunday Morning Herald (Australia): “Why the U.S. is No. 1 in Mass Shootings.”


Similar coverage was given that year by USA Today, PBS Newshour, NPR, ABC Evening News, Fox News, and many hundreds of other outlets. The stories were carried by various wire services and covered by media outlets across the country. Many have covered the claim repeatedly. Coverage wasn’t just limited to the US or even the English-speaking world. It has received extensive attention in countries such as Australia, Austria, Argentina, Armenia, Brazil, Canada, China, Colombia, Costa Rica, Denmark, Egypt, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Iran, Ireland, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Portugal, Russia, Slovenia, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Turkey, UK, Venezuela, Vietnam, and Cuba.

The research keeps being cited. In the last nine months, the New York Times has twice republished the same diagrams which show that the United States stands alone in its number of guns and mass public shootings. Since October 2017, USA Today has re-cited this research on three more occasions. Just this year, it has received coverage on television and twice in the Washington Post as well as Chicago Tribune, Houston Chronicle, Politifact, and Psychology Today. The Washington Post referred to it this year as Lankford’s “famous study.”

Since then, the media has continually used Lankford’s numbers and asserted that the US has an incredibly high rate of mass public shootings. Often, this is attributed to America’s high gun ownership rate.

Unfortunately, Lankford has not published or released his list of mass public shootings or even the number of cases by country or by year. He has even refused repeated requests to provide a list of the news sources or languages he used to compile his list of cases. This prevents anyone from doing even a rough check of his data. Only a couple news stories interviewed any researcher who might be critical of Lankford’s claims.

In his original paper, Lankford gave information on the number of cases for only four countries: France, Philippines, Russia, and Yemen. Just for the New York Times, Lankford provided information on the number of attacks by country, which was used to publish a series of graphs. But the observations in the Times’ graphs were labeled for only those same four countries.

For less developed parts of the world such as Africa or Latin America, it can be very difficult to obtain news stories from even a decade or so ago. It is downright impossible to obtain news stories on all of the cases of four or more people being killed in the 1960s or 1970s. So instead of looking at all 47 years that Lankford claims to study, we examined the last 15 years of his period of study: 1998 to 2012.

Lankford claims to have found 292 mass public shooters over the 47 years from 1966 to 2012, with 90 occurring in the United States and 202 in the rest of world. Over just the last 15 years of that period, we find 1,491 cases — 43 in the United States.

In the following discussion we show how sensitive the results are to decisions on what to include in the count. But even the most generous assumptions produce results show that mass public shooters, shootings, and murders from these attacks are very rare in the US compared to the rest of the world.

Conclusion

We tried to duplicate Lankford’s results. Coding these events sometimes involves subjectivity. But even when we use coding choices that are most charitable to Lankford, his 31 percent estimate of the US’s share of world mass public shooters is cut by over 95 percent. The US makes up less than 1.43% of the mass public shooters, 2.11% of their murders, and 2.88% of their attacks. These results show that the U.S. clearly has fewer mass public shootings and murders from these attacks than the average rate for the rest of the world.

Lankford is clearly wrong that the NYPD dataset “may be nearly comprehensive in its coverage of recent decades.” Over the 15 years that we studied, the NYPD dataset had 16 foreign attacks, with 27 killers and 393 killed. By contrast, we find 1,448 attacks, with 3,081 killers and 15,095 killed. The NYPD is very far from being comprehensive.. Lankford shouldn’t have ignored the NYPD warning that they had a “strong sampling bias against international incidents.”

Whenever possible, academics have a responsibility to make their data available so that other researchers can confirm their findings. This obligation is particularly important after the research has been published or received media attention or been used multiple times by the president. Lankford's refusal to provide either academics or the media with a list of his mass public shootings or to explain how he identified his cases should have raised real concerns among journalists who covered his paper. For many places, such as Africa, it is challenging to obtain cases from the last decade, let alone during the 1960s, 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s.

The massive difference in the number of cases that we have discovered and what Lankford claimed points to either extreme sloppiness or possible fraud. His refusal to share his data, his paper, and even methodology details, suggest that he may have known that his study contained dramatic flaws.

After compiling this data for the 15 years from 1998 through 2012, the last fifteen years studied by Lankford, it is clear that he missed an enormous number of cases. We have found about fifteen times more shooters in 15 years than Lankford claimed to find in 47 years. But however one counts these cases, the United States is well below the average country regarding either the frequency or murder rate from these attacks or their deadliness.

This data not only has implication for how the United States compares to other countries but also to previous claims about what might be responsible for these attacks. For example, Lankford’s claim that higher rates of gun ownership are associated with more mass public shooters completely disappears when this more complete data on mass public shooters is used (Lott, 2018).