Saturday, June 01, 2019

Contrary to what the Anti-Trumpers think, Mueller said nothing about Obstruction at his press conference

At his press conference, Meuller said that he was not able to prove that there was no obstruction.  This does not imply that someone else could not prove there was no obstruction.  But let's actually make Mueller's statement stronger and see where it leads.

It is not possible to prove that there was no obstruction.

Heck, why not make it still stronger.

The probability of no obstruction is less than 100%.

So, what are the implications of this statement?

  • The probability of obstruction is greater than 0% and less than or equal to  100%.  For example, it could be 0.0000001% or even 99.999999% or even 100%!
  • Nothing in the statement narrows the probability of obstruction down to anywhere in the interval (0%,100%].
  • The statement conveys essentially no information whatever about the probability of obstruction.
  • Mueller's weaker statement conveys slightly less than essentially no information whatever about the probability of obstruction.
So, the next time you hear someone claiming that Mueller's statement bears meaningfully on the likelihood of obstruction, you will know that either they don't know what they are talking about or are purposely trying to mislead you.  In either case, you may want to consider ignoring them in the future.  It may be a good idea not to vote for them, either.

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