Saturday, February 22, 2020

Mass Public Shootings are much higher in the rest of the world and increasing much more quickly

Here is a link to a paper by John Lott, "Comparing the Global Rate of Mass Public Shootings to the U.S.'s Rate and Comparing their Changes Over Time."

JL's paper shows that the media and the anti-gunners have been lying to you.

Here are a few excerpts from the paper.  The graphics are particularly telling.
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Executive Summary

The U.S. is well below the world average in terms of the number of mass public shootings, and the global increase over time has been much bigger than for the United States. Over the 18 years from 1998 to 2015, our list contains 2,354 attacks and at least 4,880 shooters outside the United States and 53 attacks and 57 shooters within our country. By our count, the US makes up less than 1.15% of the mass public shooters, 1.49% of their murders, and 2.20% of their attacks. All these are much less than the US’s 4.6% share of the world population. Attacks in the US are not only less frequent than other countries, they are also much less deadly on average. Out of the 97 countries where we have identified mass public shootings occurring, the United States ranks 64th in the per capita frequency of these attacks and 65th in the murder rate. Not only have these attacks been much more common outside the US, the US’s share of these attacks have declined over time. There has been a much bigger increase over time in the number and severity of mass shootings in the rest of the world compared to the US.

Introduction.

President Obama and other politicians have frequently claimed that the United States is unique regarding mass public shootings.1 It is also a frequent claim by the media.

This belief is constantly used to push for more gun control. If we can only get rid of guns in the United States or have stricter gun control, we will get rid of these mass public shootings and be more like the rest of the world. Of course, it is understandable that the U.S. media doesn´t report about most of the mass public shootings in other countries. Americans are much more interested in news about their own country, but, as we will see, the US is a relatively safe place from these mass public shootings.

We use the FBI’s traditional definition of mass public shootings. America is unique regarding the detail of its crime data. For example, almost half the countries in the world don’t even report the number of firearm homicides, just the total number of homicides. Few countries provide murder rates as opposed to homicides. Other countries just don’t officially collect data on mass public killings, let alone on the category of shootings.

What this means is that we have had to do an extensive search of news stories to collect our cases. For less developed parts of the world such as Africa or Latin  America, it can be very difficult to obtain news stories from even a decade or so ago. It is downright impossible to obtain news stories on all of the cases of four or more people killed in the 1970s or 1980s. The problem is that if we have all the mass public shootings from the US but only a fraction of those from the rest of the world, it will make the US look worse than it is. So we examined the last 15 years of his period of study: 1998 to 2015. 

The following sections will explain the FBI’s definition of mass public shootings, how we collected the data, how the US compares to the rest of the world and how the rate and severity of these attacks has changed over time and comparing whether countries with the highest gun ownership rates tend to have higher rates of mass public shootings. We will also show how sensitive the results are to decisions on what to include in the count. But even the most generous assumptions produce results show that mass public shooters, shootings, and murders from these attacks are very rare in the US compared to the rest of the world.




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