Some medical sources are saying that the mortality rate from COVID-19 is below 1%. Some are saying it is about 0.1%, which is of the same order as the flu mortality rate. Until now, I have thought that a mortality rate of 0.1% was unlikely. My off-the-cuff reasoning was that we have not seen refrigeration trucks parked outside hospitals for bodies for flu, which we have seen for COVID-19.
There is growing evidence that a high percentage of people that have been infected with COVID-19 either had no symptom or only minor symptoms. Consequently, it seems likely that the number of people who have been infected with COVID-19 is far larger than previously thought. If so, it may be that the COVID-19 mortality rate is far lower than previously thought. A COVID-19 mortality rate comparable to the flu, about 0.1%, may be in the ballpark.
So, how can a COVID-19 mortality rate of about that for the flu be reconciled with the refrigeration trucks for COVID-19 and the lack thereof for the flu? Easy, a sufficiently higher rate of spreading, either due to the availability of flu vaccine or that COVID-19 is more contagious than flu. In either case, the same mortality rate leads to a higher peak infection level.
If the COVID-19 and flu mortality rates are comparable and we accept the latter without lockdowns, then shouldn’t we accept the former without lockdowns? Or, if not, should not our strategy be to protect only those who have a high mortality rate from COVID-19, e.g., old, diabetes, obese, so that total COVID-19 deaths are at about the same level as for the flu - and have no lockdowns?
Maybe it is time to eliminate lockdowns and to completely open the economy.
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