What is the tradeoff between freedom to do what we want and COVID-19 deaths? Clearly, there are serious adverse consequences associated with the lockdowns and other extreme measures taken to reduce COVID-19 deaths, so a goal of minimizing COVID-19 deaths makes no sense.
If lockdowns and other extreme measures are not appropriate for the flu, then why are they appropriate for COVID-19? Only if the mortality rate of COVID-19 is high enough. Given our behavior for the flu, which implies something about our risk preferences, and given the current COVID-19 mortality rate in other than particularly vulnerable people that is of the same order of magnitude as for the flu, a fair conclusion is that lockdowns and other extreme measures are no longer appropriate for COVID-19 if vulnerable people take suitable precautions. But what if some vulnerable people do not take suitable precautions? This leads to a much more important issue than COVID-19 deaths.
Who should decide what risks people take, the Government or the people? Freedom requires that it be the people, provided their decisions do not unduly impact others. Since people vulnerable to COVID-19 know who they are and are able to take effective precautions themselves if they desire to avoid COVID-19, there is no good reason why others should not be able to run their businesses, go to the beach, eat at restaurants, etc. Lockdowns and other extreme measures are no longer appropriate.
What about the focus on COVID-19 cases? Take Florid as an example, touted as a worst case. Here is a plot of daily new cases. Note the large rate of increase since June 10, 2020.
According to the “experts”, the rapid increase in new cases must be dealt with using lockdowns or other extreme measures because it will lead to a corresponding rapid increase in new deaths, with a lag. Here is a plot of daily new deaths. So far, there is no indication of a large rate of increase in new deaths. Based on the lag between deaths and cases, a few more weeks will tell the tale.
For the US as a whole, here are the same two plots. So far, there is no indication that the rapid increase in new cases has led to a corresponding rapid increase in new deaths. Deaths have been in a declining trend while cases turned strongly up beginning about June 15, 2020. Here, too, a few more weeks will tell the tale.
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