An Unconventional Case Study of Neoadjuvant Oncolytic Virotherapy for Recurrent Breast Cancer

Here is the link.

https://www.mdpi.com/2076-393X/12/9/958#

“Proving” safety and efficacy takes time. For a “better” treatment, the net impact of waiting is excess deaths. For a “worse” treatment, the net impact of waiting is saving lives.

But things are more complicated. Everything is probabilistic. It is better to think of the probability that the new drug will be net beneficial versus alternatives. Roughly, as testing goes on, this probability evolves. It tends to increase for good treatments and decline for bad treatments.

It makes sense to choose the new treatment once the probability reaches the appropriate level for the particular individual considering the new treatment. The appropriate probability varies across individuals and conditions.

The Government has a one-size-fits-all approach. Even worse, those who make the decisions focus more on avoiding any bad outcome because they know the resulting publicity can cost them their jobs. So, choices that should be made in favor of new treatments are routinely delayed beyond where lives are saved. The Government tends to wait too long before approving new treatments, hence tends to cause excess deaths.