Tuesday, February 11, 2025

Sometimes, experts are very wrong

 From www.adamsmith.org.

 In 1903, The New York Times estimated that achieving human-powered flight would require the “combined and continuous efforts of mathematicians and mechanicians from one million to ten million years” (Theory Is All You Need: AI, Human Cognition, and Decision Making, p. 27). Remarkably, this article was published at the very time the Wright brothers were making their first successful attempts at flight. The scientific consensus was overwhelmingly against them; their efforts were deemed unscientific and irrational. Prominent scientists even published articles explaining why human flight was impossible (LeConte, 1888; Newcomb, 1901). Their reasoning was based on flawed inductive logic: small birds, such as pigeons, could fly, while larger birds, like ostriches, could not. From this, they concluded that there was a natural size limit for flying objects, making human flight unattainable.

 Yet today, if you live in London, you witness airplanes weighing thousands of pounds soaring through the sky every day. This embodies the essence of freedom: allowing the unexpected to happen and making the impossible possible. As Hayek wrote, "the value of freedom rests on the opportunities it provides for unforeseen and unpredictable actions" (Hayek, Principles or Expediency?).

No comments: