From www.adamsmith.org.
In 1903, The New York Times estimated that achieving
human-powered flight would require the “combined and continuous efforts of
mathematicians and mechanicians from one million to ten million years” (Theory
Is All You Need: AI, Human Cognition, and Decision Making, p. 27). Remarkably,
this article was published at the very time the Wright brothers were making
their first successful attempts at flight. The scientific consensus was
overwhelmingly against them; their efforts were deemed unscientific and
irrational. Prominent scientists even published articles explaining why human
flight was impossible (LeConte, 1888; Newcomb, 1901). Their reasoning was based
on flawed inductive logic: small birds, such as pigeons, could fly, while
larger birds, like ostriches, could not. From this, they concluded that there
was a natural size limit for flying objects, making human flight unattainable.
Yet today, if you live in London, you witness airplanes
weighing thousands of pounds soaring through the sky every day. This embodies
the essence of freedom: allowing the unexpected to happen and making the
impossible possible. As Hayek wrote, "the value of freedom rests on the
opportunities it provides for unforeseen and unpredictable actions"
(Hayek, Principles or Expediency?).
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