Friday, January 19, 2018

Cardiologists and statistics

Here is the conclusion of a paper in a professional cardiology journal that is inconsistent with its results.  Keep in mind that MDs are seldom statisticians.

In this AF cohort, the authors demonstrated that the CHA2DS2-VASc score was not static, and that most patients with AF developed ≥1 new stroke risk factor before presentation with ischemic stroke. The Delta CHA2DS2-VASc score, reflecting the change in score between baseline and follow-up, was strongly predictive of ischemic stroke, reflecting how stroke risk in AF is a dynamic process due to increasing age and incident comorbidities.

Here are the paper's results that led to the authors' conclusion.

The mean baseline CHA2DS2-VASc score was 1.29, which increased to 2.31 during the follow-up, with a mean Delta CHA2DS2-VASc score of 1.02. The CHA2DS2-VASc score remained unchanged in only 40.8% of patients. Among 4,103 patients who experienced ischemic stroke, 89.4% had a Delta CHA2DS2-VASc score ≥1 compared with only 54.6% in patients without ischemic stroke, and 2,643 (64.4%) patients had ≥1 new-onset comorbidity, the most common being hypertension. The Delta CHA2DS2-VASc score was a significant predictor of ischemic stroke that performed better than baseline or follow-up CHA2DS2-VASc scores, as assessed by the C-index and the net reclassification index.

Here is the problem.

The authors' conclusion is of the form Probability of Stroke given High Delta exceeds Probability of Stroke given Low Delta.  These are the probabilities of interest.

The authors' results are of the form Probability of High Delta given Stroke exceeds Probability of Low Delta given Stroke.

These two probability sets are different.  The latter does not imply the former.

Here is a hypothetical example where the Probability of a Stroke given a High Delta is lower than the Probability of a Stroke given a Low Delta, yet the Probability of a High Delta given a Stroke is higher than the Probability of a Low Delta given a Stroke.

Suppose a sample of 100 people where 80 have a high delta and 20 have a low delta.  Suppose the probability of a stroke given a high delta is 30% and the probability of a stroke give a low delta is 80%.  Then 24 of the high delta people have strokes and 16 of the low delta people have strokes, for a total of 40 strokes.  Of the people suffering a stroke, 60% had a high delta and 40% had a low delta.

  

Government regulation is not intended to benefit you

Most people think that Government regulation is, mostly, intended to benefit citizens.  The reality is that it mostly ends up preventing competition - thereby reducing employment opportunities and raising consumer prices.

Here is an excerpt from a TownHall article by Ed Feulner.

EF is on target.

For comparison, a commercial pilot license requires only about 250 flight hours.
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Few things could be more American than volunteering to help others. So it’s a shame when our altruism is thwarted by another, far more lamentable American trait: big government.

Juan Carlos Montes de Oca knows firsthand.A cosmetology student from Tucson, Montes de Oca felt inspired when he heard about a barber in London who donated haircuts to the homeless on his days off. So he decided to do the same for homeless veterans in Arizona.

He did this free of charge, of course, to give the veterans a better appearance and a more positive outlook when applying for jobs.“Out of the kindness of my heart,” he told a reporter. “Out of the memory of my mom, because she lost her hair.”

Well, we can’t have that, can we? So to the rescue rides what the Arizona Republic referred to as “the hair police” – theArizona State Board of Cosmetology. It turns out Montes de Oca was giving these haircuts despite the fact that he hadn’t graduated from cosmetology school. He was giving these cuts to homeless vets … without a license.

What a monster. Grab the torches and pitchforks!

It seems you can’t just set up shop and start shearing locks in the Grand Canyon state, no matter how talented you may be. Astate law requires 1,000 hours of training at a state-licensed school.

Montes de Oca wasn’t the first Arizona resident to run afoul of government overseers. As Republic reporter Kristin Haubrich noted:

“A dozen years ago, they swooped down on a 23-year-old Glendale woman who was braiding the hair of African-Americans. The cosmetology cops informed Essence that she’d have to get a license to do that which she’d been doing since she was 13 years old.

“To get that license, she would have to take 1,600 hours of classes at a state-approved cosmetology school, paying tuition of $10,000 or more to learn everything from how to cut and curl to how to manicure and massage. Everything, that is, but how to braid hair.”

The state legislature passed a law to fix this, but then along came the case of Juana, a 24-year-old eyebrow threader. She had been doing this kind of work for eight years, but the “cosmetology cops” told her she’d have to stop. Only a licensed aestheticiancould do such work.

Juana, the Republic reported, would “need 600 hours of state-approved classes, learning everything from laser safety to Botox theory, from how to apply chemical peels and how to tint eyelashes. Everything, that is, but how to remove hair with a thread.”

It took a long fight and a lawsuit to get that requirement fixed. But you can never rest easy where government is concerned -- as soon as you pluck one bureaucratic weed, another starts growing in its place.

Thursday, January 18, 2018

One reason why I never contributed to my Alma Mater

Here is Don Boudreaux's July 2000 column in the Freeman.

DB is on target - but too optimistic - as subsequent events have shown.

My college classmates were not as extreme as the Columbia College students portrayed in the column.  However, while being mostly really nice people, they were mostly elitists who did not appreciate what they didn't know and who thought nothing of forcing others to live as they saw fit for their own good.

I would be rich if only it were possible to arbitrage by buying these people for what they are worth and selling them for what they think they are worth.
----------------------------------------------------
In March, ABC Television presented “You Can’t Say That!”—another illuminating program by John Stossel. In it, he documented the distressing intolerance that many Americans have for the opinions of others, and a corresponding acceptance of policies that infringe the freedoms of thought and speech.

In one scene, several students at Columbia University are shown contemptuously telling Stossel that they have the right to verbally obstruct Ward Connerly, an opponent of affirmative action who spoke at their school. Stossel asked these students who had given them the power to interfere.

“I’m taking that power, actually,” was the answer offered by a young woman who was clearly proud of her and her cohorts’ obstruction of what would otherwise have been a peaceful exchange of ideas between Connerly and other students who wished to hear him.

At first I was angry with these students. But my anger soon turned to pity. How sad that these students are so certain of their own omniscience. Being so cocksure will keep them from ever learning and growing.

I cheered myself up by reflecting that these young people are unlikely to remain so convinced of their own omniscience. As soon as they must find jobs, each will quickly show more tolerance for others—the reason is that anyone who doesn’t is unlikely to succeed professionally or even to retain any lasting friendships. Decent and productive people gain nothing by associating with those rendered uncivilized by their arrogance.

To succeed in life requires a general respect for others, a Socratic recognition that each of us is far more ignorant than informed, and a broad tolerance for opinions with which we disagree. Those who lack these traits never grow. Their mistaken belief in their own superiority shields them from learning. The ironic result is that those who are most sure of their greater wisdom and knowledge are far more foolish and ignorant than those of us who understand the limits of our own knowledge.

That these students will soon find it necessary to grow more humble heartened me.

“But wait,” my thinking progressed. “What if they seek employment, not in the private sector where such arrogance is intolerable, but in some government bureaucracy shielded from competition?” I can well imagine any of these young people working as a regional administrator for the Department of Housing and Urban Development, as a staff attorney for the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission, or as any one of a number of government functionaries who get to play god with other people’s money and lives. Far from curing arrogance, such government jobs reinforce it.

Gratefully, we live in what is still largely an open society where most decision-making authority is decentralized. If I don’t like the attitude of an employee, I can fire him; if an employee doesn’t like the way I treat him, he can quit; if you dislike the deal that Radio Shack offers you on one of its radios, you can go to Circuit City; if Circuit City doesn’t like the price you offer for one of its radios, it can offer to sell it to someone else.

Contrary to much popular wisdom, the ability of free people to make their own decisions unrestrained by government interference doesn’t lead to arbitrary and capricious choices. Instead, each person outside of political settings improves his lot in life by acting in ways beneficial not only to himself but to those with whom he interacts. If I fire an employee for reasons that are purely malicious, I suffer. I lose a good employee and, in consequence, my profits fall. Other employers with more sense will line up to hire any good people whom I fire capriciously.

Focusing the consequences of decisions on those who make them—as the free market does so well—doesn’t totally eliminate careless and malevolent behavior in private markets, but it surely keeps it to a minimum. More relevantly, it keeps such undesirable behavior scarcer than it would be if political decision-making supplanted private decision-making. Political decision-making is an especially fertile source of arbitrary and capricious decisions.

To see why, imagine one of these arrogant young Columbia students starting, say, a software firm. Perhaps in pursuit of her prejudices, she initially hires people based exclusively on their skin color. She soon finds her balance sheet in the red. If she has any sense at all, she overcomes her arrogance and learns. She learns that she must hire people according to their talent and not according to irrelevant characteristics. The market’s requirement that she interact voluntarily with others compels her to grow smarter, more humble, more aware, more productive, more civilized. She becomes a better person. (If she refuses to overcome her arrogance, her continued business losses ensure that she won’t long remain in a position to make important decisions.)

But now imagine this young woman, not in America, but in a highly centralized society–say, today’s Cuba. Imagine her gaining influence with the party apparatchiks. For purely political reasons, she is given power to decide how thousands of people will live. Her success depends on pleasing only a handful of high government officials and not at all on her ability or willingness to act in ways that better the lives of the multitude of people subject to her authority.

Because ordinary people in such a centralized society are unable to remove themselves from her influence, she gets no meaningful feedback about whether or not her actions help or hurt them. And even if she did get such feedback, she could safely ignore it. Her position and power depend only on how well she pleases party bosses and not on how well she pleases the great majority of people whose lives her actions directly affect. In this setting, this woman will remain as arrogant, as imperious, as ignorant, and as uncivilized as she is as a student.

An important virtue of free markets is that they convert most arrogant, ignorant, and self-absorbed young people into modest, intelligent, and productive adults. A related virtue is that those few people who refuse to break the chains of their own ignorance never reap the full rewards of civilization.

My guess—certainly, my sincere hope—is that the overbearing students interviewed recently by John Stossel will, in time, grow civilized. If so, they’ll look back on their behavior in college with embarrassment. But watch out if these students instead gain political power, for rather than civilize them, such power will cement their ignorance and prevent them from becoming productive members of civil society.

Wednesday, January 17, 2018

The Selfishness of the Unselfish

Here is Don Boudreaux's June 2000 column in the Freeman.

DB is on target.
Dogooders are, by and large, selfish and tyrannical.
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Several years ago, I encountered a woman at a cocktail party in Atlanta who was active in that city’s historical-preservation movement. To make conversation, I asked why she thought that stricter historical-preservation regulations were required.

“Because greedy developers tear down too many old and beautiful homes or renovate them in ways that destroy their historical integrity” she replied.

“Why do you call these developers ‘greedy’?” I asked.

“Because they care only about money. They don’t care about beauty or history,” she answered.

“But because they build houses to make money they must take account of the tastes and demands of their customers, who either cannot afford or do not want to live in historically accurate old houses. What’s wrong with that?”

“Everything!” she shot back. “Most home buyers today have dreadfully bad taste.”

“I’m curious: what kind of home do you live in?” I inquired.

“An 1893 Victorian, perfectly restored,” she answered proudly.

I regret that my desire to avoid confrontation caused me then to mumble a limp reply and fade off to fetch another glass of wine.

But the exchange is instructive. Amazingly, this woman believed herself to represent the forces of good and altruism in a battle against the forces of evil and greed. And I bet that if the local newspaper had written a story about her efforts on behalf of historical preservation, she would have been portrayed as a modern Joan of Arc. But it is she who is the truly greedy one. Not only was she blithely willing to impose her own tastes on others, but the policies she championed—by reducing the supply of housing in Atlanta—conveniently increased the value of her own home. She was eager to use government to force countless other people—in exchange for nothing from her—to subsidize her aesthetic sensibilities and to enhance her balance sheet.

That’s genuine greed.

Sadly, the attitude of my acquaintance in Atlanta is merely one small case in a widespread epidemic that might be called “the selfishness of the unselfish.” The selfishness of the unselfish is found whenever the self-proclaimed enemies of greed bemoan, with one breath, the base motivations that allegedly drive capitalism, and then, with their next breath, propose policies that are monuments to vulgar selfishness.

The most easily spotted strain of this disease is that which compels its host to level charges of greed against others merely as a means of clearing the way for government policies that serve the host’s own narrow self-interest. This is the strain that infected my acquaintance in Atlanta: she liked old homes and hypocritically called “greedy” anyone who built any home that she disliked.

This is the strain that also triggers protectionism, minimum-wage legislation, and any number of other policies that materially benefit some people at the expense of others. Perhaps surprisingly, much of modern-day environmental policy is of this sort.

Consider that many of today’s environmentalists are among the most vocal opponents of “capitalist greed.” But environmental policies too often provide benefits to environmentalists (for example, protecting land from development so that it is available for hiking) at the expense of consumers who would benefit from the greater supply of goods and services that would be available were it not for these output-reducing policies.

My point here is not that preserving some land from development is undesirable. Rather, it is that those who advocate such environmental policies in the name of opposing “capitalist greed” are themselves motivated by their own greed. And it is an especially galling greed. Not only are those who are motivated by it blind to their own avarice, but they—unlike entrepreneurs—satisfy their selfishness through force. They use government to take from others and give to them. Entrepreneurs, in contrast, satisfy their self-interest by giving things of value in exchange for what they receive from consumers.

The other strain of the “selfishness of the unselfish” disease is a bit (but just a bit) harder to spot. This strain does not lead its hosts to advocate harmful policies that bestow material benefits on them. Instead, it simply encourages its hosts selfishly to emote rather than to think rationally about various policies.

It is much more difficult to study an issue and to think it through thoroughly than to react emotionally. Reacting emotionally is a cheap way to strut your sensibilities in front of others as well as to avoid the often arduous intellectual challenge of learning the relevant details, studying the alternative theories, and weighing all the pros and cons before reaching a conclusion. Doing this hard work requires diligence. To express an opinion without undertaking this effort is supremely selfish, for to do so is to steal the gratification that comes with “taking a stand” without paying the price of assuring that the stand taken is sound.

Consider, for example, the well-meaning nineteenth-century reformers who sought to improve immigrant housing in America by mandating higher housing quality.

The kinds of reforms being promoted in the nineteenth century did not expand the slum-dwellers’ options but reduced them. Since better housing mandated by law cost more money, immigrant slum-dwellers now had to devote a higher percentage of their incomes toward purchasing more expensive housing with features that would be more pleasing to third-party observers, rather than make the trade-offs that they themselves would have preferred with their own money.*

These reformers selfishly indulged in campaigns that made them feel good about themselves, without bothering to explore the full consequences of the schemes they foisted on innocent third parties. While the reformers got good press and a warm sense of self-satisfaction, the welfare of immigrants deteriorated as a consequence of these reformers’ selfish indulgence of their own thoughtless notions of reality.

The same is true of today’s “reformers” who clamor for banning imports of goods made in factories that employ children. These reformers selfishly enjoy the rush of satisfaction that comes from moral posturing without once stopping to trace the consequences of the policies they advocate.

Pay attention to the protestations of those who demand greater government involvement in the economy—particularly those who bemoan the greed that allegedly characterizes capitalism. You’ll find that almost always the most outspoken opponents of greed are its greatest patrons.

My Grandaughter

Karoline Sandvig: MAAC Female Field Peformer of the Week.

Here is a Link1

Here is an article.

Women’s Field Performer of the Week
Karoline Sandvig, Rider
Sr., West Windsor, NJ/West Windsor Plainsboro HS South

Karoline Sandvig takes home her third-straight MAAC Female Field Performer of the Week with her performance at the Saint Thomas Aquinas College Spartan Invitational. The senior recorded a personal best weight throw distance of 17.66 meters, which is now the top distance in the MAAC. Sandvig qualified for the ECAC Championships with her performance.

Walter Williams gets it right on the Electoral College

Walter E. Williams is a professor of economics at George Mason University.

WW is on target.

Rule by simple majority is an invitation to subjugation of the minority by the majority.
-----------------------------------------------
Hillary Clinton blamed the Electoral College for her stunning defeat in the 2016 presidential election in her latest memoirs, “What Happened?” Some have claimed that the Electoral College is one of the most dangerous institutions in American politics. Why? They say the Electoral College system, as opposed to a simple majority vote, distorts the one-person, one-vote principle of democracy because electoral votes are not distributed according to population.

To back up their claim, they point out that the Electoral College gives, for example, Wyoming citizens disproportionate weight in a presidential election. Put another way, Wyoming, a state with a population of about 600,000, has one member in the U.S. House of Representatives and two members in the U.S. Senate, which gives the citizens of Wyoming three electoral votes, or one electoral vote per 200,000 people. California, our most populous state, has more than 39 million people and 55 electoral votes, or approximately one vote per 715,000 people. Comparatively, individuals in Wyoming have nearly four times the power in the Electoral College as Californians.

Many people whine that using the Electoral College instead of the popular vote and majority rule is undemocratic. I’d say that they are absolutely right. Not deciding who will be the president by majority rule is not democracy. But the Founding Fathers went to great lengths to ensure that we were a republic and not a democracy. In fact, the word democracy does not appear in the Declaration of Independence, the U.S. Constitution or any other of our founding documents.

How about a few quotations expressed by the Founders about democracy? In Federalist Paper No. 10, James Madison wanted to prevent rule by majority faction, saying, “Measures are too often decided, not according to the rules of justice and the rights of the minor party, but by the superior force of an interested and overbearing majority.” John Adams warned in a letter, “Remember Democracy never lasts long. It soon wastes, exhausts and murders itself. There never was a Democracy Yet, that did not commit suicide.” Edmund Randolph said, “That in tracing these evils to their origin, every man had found it in the turbulence and follies of democracy.” Then-Chief Justice John Marshall observed, “Between a balanced republic and a democracy, the difference is like that between order and chaos.”

The Founders expressed contempt for the tyranny of majority rule, and throughout our Constitution, they placed impediments to that tyranny. Two houses of Congress pose one obstacle to majority rule. That is, 51 senators can block the wishes of 435 representatives and 49 senators. The president can veto the wishes of 535 members of Congress. It takes two-thirds of both houses of Congress to override a presidential veto. To change the Constitution requires not a majority but a two-thirds vote of both houses, and if an amendment is approved, it requires ratification by three-fourths of state legislatures. Finally, the Electoral College is yet another measure that thwarts majority rule. It makes sure that the highly populated states — today, mainly 12 on the East and West coasts, cannot run roughshod over the rest of the nation. That forces a presidential candidate to take into consideration the wishes of the other 38 states.

Those Americans obsessed with rule by popular majorities might want to get rid of the U.S. Senate, where states, regardless of population, have two senators. Should we change representation in the House of Representatives to a system of proportional representation and eliminate the guarantee that each state gets at least one representative? Currently, seven states with populations of 1 million or fewer have one representative, thus giving them disproportionate influence in Congress. While we’re at it, should we make all congressional acts be majority rule? When we’re finished with establishing majority rule in Congress, should we then move to change our court system, which requires unanimity in jury decisions, to a simple majority rule?

My question is: Is it ignorance of or contempt for our Constitution that fuels the movement to abolish the Electoral College?

Tuesday, January 16, 2018

Puns

I just found out I'm colorblind.  The diagnosis came completely out of the purple.

I saw an ad for burial plots - the last thing I need.

Two blondes were driving to Disneyland.  The sign said, "Disneyland left".  So, they started crying and went home.

Don't worry about the bird flu - it's tweetable.

Did you hear about the kidnapping at school?  It's okay, he woke up.

A termite walked into the bar and asked "Where is the bar tender?"

eBay is useless.  I looked up lighters.  All they had was 13,749 matches.

The French eat snails because they don't like fast food.

The difference between a poorly dressed man on a bicycle and a nicely dressed man on a tricycle is a tire.

I used to be addicted to soap, but I'm clean now.

Leopards can't play hide and seek - they are always spotted.

Don't spell "part" backwards - it's a trap.

I have a few jokes about unemployed people but it doesn't matter - none of them work.

To the mathematician who thought up zero - thanks for nothing.

Sign language is handy.

R.I.P boiled water - you are mist.

A clown opened a door for me -  nice jester.


Undocumented Immigrants - some data

From the Crime Prevention Research Center: John Lott's paper "Undocumented immigrants, U.S. Citizens, and Convicted Criminals in Arizona.

JL's paper can be found here.

Here is the Summary.
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Based on data from 1985 to 2017, undocumented immigrants are at least 142% more likely to be convicted of crime than other Arizonans.

Undocumented immigrants tend to commit more serious crimes and serve 10.5% longer sentences than do U.S. citizens.

Undocumented immigrants are 163% more likely to be convicted of 1st degree murder than are U.S. citizens, 168% more likely to be convicted of 2nd degree murder, and 189.6% more likely to be convicted of manslaughter. Those three categories and negligent homicide added up to 987 convictions. Undocumented immigrants are also much more likely to commit sexual offenses against minors, sexual assault, DUI, and armed robbery.

Young convicts are especially likely to be undocumented immigrants. Undocumented immigrants born after June 15, 1981 are eligible for Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA). While undocumented immigrants from 15 to 35 years of age make up a little over two percent of the Arizona population, they make up almost 8% of the prison population. These immigrants also tend to commit more serious crimes.

Undocumented immigrant criminals are 45.4% more likely than other criminals to have been gang members, and 133% more likely to receive sentencing enhancements for being classified as dangerous.

These numbers may give an artificially low estimate of the share of crime committed by undocumented immigrants. Undocumented immigrants may commit many of their crimes against each other, and their victims may be afraid of calling the police or testifying at trial because of their undocumented status.

While undocumented immigrants are more likely to be convicted of crimes, they also exhibit extremely low recidivism and criminal history rates. Among criminals who are U.S. citizens, a small subset keeps going in and out of prison. Among undocumented immigrants, a much larger proportion go to prison once or twice and then never return to prison. 24.8% of U.S. citizens were admitted five or more times in the Arizona Department of Corrections, but that same number is only 2.95% for undocumented immigrants. The evidence suggests that these individuals leave Arizona after being incarcerated.

If undocumented immigrants committed crime nationally as they do in Arizona, in 2016 they would have been responsible for over 1,000 more murders, 5,200 rapes, 8,900 robberies, 25,300 aggravated assaults, and 26,900 burglaries.

Perspective on Trade Deficits

Don Boudreaux's letter to President Trump.

DB is on target - but there is more to the issue.

One reason for Trump's policy on trade probably is that trade is so little understood by most voters, who feel as Trump talks.  Given that the Politicians play to voters' lack of understanding and reinforce it, nobody who tells the truth is likely to be elected.

Which of the following do you prefer?

  1. We import (buy) a lot of things from China and pay X dollars for them.  China uses the X dollars to import (buy) a lot of things from us.
  2.  We import (buy) a lot of things from China and pay X dollars for them.  China stashes the X dollars in a large vault.
  3. We import (buy) a lot of things from China and pay X dollars for them.  China uses the X dollars to invest in US companies, who buy (build) X dollars of factories in the US and employ N US citizens.
  4. We import (buy) a lot of things from China and pay X dollars for them.  China uses the X dollars to buy US Treasuries.

In Case 1, the US trade deficit is zero.

In Cases 2, 3, and 4, the US trade deficit is X.

Case 2 is the best of all possible worlds.  We get useful stuff from China and they get pieces of paper.  This is despite that the US has a large trade deficit and China has a large trade surplus.  Evidently a trade deficit can be the best thing in the world and a trade surplus the worst thing in the world.

Cases 3 differs from Case 1 only in that the things China's buys (factories, real estate, etc.) remain in the US, hence are not counted as US exports, hence create a trade deficit. However, just as much US employment is created by China buying these things as in Case 1.  If this does not convince you that the trade deficit is a meaningless computation, read Thomas Sowell's Basic Econmics book.

Case 4 is a lot like Case 3, but there is gross inefficiency due to the fact that Government spending is wasteful and not matched to consumers' preferences.

Here's DB's letter.
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Mr. Trump:

Reports are that, in your telephone conversation today with Chinese President Xi Jinping, you complained that Americans’ trade deficit with the Chinese is growing.

Why are you complaining? Do you not realize that a rising U.S. trade deficit means that foreigners are increasing their investments in the United States? If you do realize this reality, why do you reckon that for us Americans it is bad? Do believe that the Joneses in Jacksonville and the Smiths in Saginaw are damaged if you increase your investments in America? If not, why do you suppose that these Americans are damaged when non-Americans increase their investments in America?

You famously strut and boast that you’re committed to “making America great again.” Yet when foreigners invest more here – investments that both likely signal increased global confidence in the U.S. economy and that add to the capital stock of the U.S. economy (thus raising the productivity of American workers) – you complain. Your actions make no sense.

If you’re really committed to enhancing America’s greatness, you should stop complaining to the heads of foreign governments about their citizens’ investments in the U.S. (that is, about their citizens’ contributions to the so-called U.S. ‘trade deficit’) and instead send flowers, chocolates, and notes gushing with thank-yous for their helping to achieve on your watch the American ‘greatness’ that you claim to want.

Sincerely,
Donald J. Boudreaux
Professor of Economics
and
Martha and Nelson Getchell Chair for the Study of Free Market Capitalism at the Mercatus Center
George Mason University
Fairfax, VA 22030

Sunday, January 14, 2018

Government is not the source of freedom

George Will's column in the Washington Post.

GW is on target.

Government is not the source of freedom - it destroys freedom.  Wait a minute - perhaps that is too harsh - could this kind of thing happen without a populace that does not respect freedom?
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Frank Lloyd Wright purportedly said, “Tip the world over on its side and everything loose will land in Los Angeles.” Today, however, Oregon is the state with the strangest state of mind, which has something to do with its being impeccably ­progressive: In the television series “Portlandia,” the mention of artisanal lightbulbs might be satirical, but given today’s gas-pumping controversy, perhaps not.

On Jan. 1, by the grace of God — or of the government, which is pretty much the same thing to progressives — a sliver of a right was granted to Oregonians: Henceforth they can pump gas into their cars and trucks, all by themselves. But only in counties with populations of less than 40,000, evidently because this walk on the wild side is deemed to be prudent only in the hinterlands, where there is a scarcity of qualified technicians trained in the science of pumping. Still, 2018 will be the year of living dangerously in the state that was settled by people who trekked there on the Oregon Trail, through the territories of Native Americans hostile to Manifest Destiny.

Oregon is one of two states that ban self-service filling stations. The other is almost-as-deep-blue New Jersey. There the ban is straightforward, no-damned-nonsense-about-anything-else protectionism: The point is to spare full-service gas stations from having to compete with self-service stations that, having lower labor costs, can offer lower prices.

Oregon’s legislature offers 17 reasons “it is in the public interest to maintain a prohibition on the self-service dispensing of Class 1 flammable liquids” — a.k.a. gasoline, which you put in your car’s “Class 1 flammable liquids tank.” The first reason is: The dispensing of such liquids “by dispensers properly trained in appropriate safety procedures reduces fire hazards.” This presumably refers to the many conflagrations regularly occurring at filling stations throughout the 48 states where 96 percent of Americans live lives jeopardized by state legislators who are negligent regarding their nanny-state duty to assume that their constituents are imbeciles.

Among Oregon’s 16 other reasons are: Service-station cashiers are often unable to “give undivided attention” to the rank amateurs dispensing flammable liquids. When purchasers of such liquids leave their vehicles they risk “crime,” and “personal injury” from slick surfaces. (“Oregon’s weather is uniquely adverse”— i.e., it rains there.) “Exposure to toxic fumes.” Senior citizens or persons with disabilities might have to pay a higher cost at a full-service pump, which would be discriminatory. When people pump gas without the help of “trained and certified” specialists, no specialists peer under the hood to administer prophylactic maintenance, thereby “endangering both the customer and other motorists and resulting in unnecessary and costly repairs.” Self-service “has contributed to diminishing the availability of automotive repair facilities at gasoline stations” without providing — note the adjective — “sustained” reduction in gas prices. Self-service causes unemployment. And “small children left unattended” by novice gas pumpers “creates a dangerous situation.” So there.

Oregon’s Solomonic decision — freedom to pump in rural counties; everywhere else, unthinkable — terrified some Oregonians: “No! Disabled, seniors, people with young children in the car need help. Not to mention getting out of your car with transients around and not feeling safe too. This is a very bad idea.” “Not a good idea, there are lots of reasons to have an attendant helping, one is they need a job too. Many people are not capable of knowing how to pump gas and the hazards of not doing it correctly. Besides I don’t want to go to work smelling of gas.”

The complainers drew complaints: “You put the gas in your car not shower in it princess.” “If your only marketable job skill is being able to pump gas, by god, move to Oregon and you will have reached the promised land.” “Pumped my own gas my whole life and now my hands have literally melted down to my wrists. I’m typing this with my tongue.” These days, civic discourse is not for shrinking violets.

To be fair, when Oregonians flinch from a rendezvous with an unattended gas pump, progressive government has done its duty, as it understands this. It wants the governed to become used to having things done for them, as by “trained and certified” gas pumpers. Progressives are proud believers in providing experts — usually themselves — to help the rest of us cope with life. The only downside is that, as Alexis de Tocqueville anticipated, such government, by being the “shepherd” of the governed, can “take away from them entirely the trouble of thinking” and keep them “fixed irrevocably in childhood.”