Thursday, March 26, 2020
COVID-19: Updated data implies that UK modelling hugely overestimates the expected death rates from infection
Here is the link to the paper.
https://judithcurry.com/2020/03/25/covid-19-updated-data-implies-that-uk-modelling-hugely-overestimates-the-expected-death-rates-from-infection/
I didn’t notice any adjustment for false positives, which would tend to lower the computed fatality rate (did I miss it or is it not accounted for?).
A 30% false negative rate is pretty large. I have read elsewhere that there also is a large false positive rate.
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