Here is the link.
Osterholm gives a great talk with a lot of information. I have only the following cautionary comments.
He failed to consider the possibility of near term drugs that work.
The models he quoted as showing that large crowds don't matter strike me as flawed - their output reflects the assumed input - and it is easy to bias the impact of large crowds down to the point where they are mostly irrelevant.
The data he quotes as showing that closing schools does not help strikes me as simply suggesting that for this pandemic, so far, transmission is mostly from adults to children as opposed to other diseases at other times when it has been from children to adults. If so, nothing rules out further spread being worse by keeping schools open during this pandemic.
For this pandemic, so far, it looks to me like most of the seeding in the US has been by adult travelers from other countries mixing with adults in this country.
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